The Law of Global Development of Human Civilization - The First Consequence
By Oleg Kropivnitskiy
A human as an intelligent and organized structure has to be familiar with three especially important Elements of Knowledge. The first one is the Knowledge of oneself, of the human. The Second one is the Knowledge of the immediate surroundings of this structure where it carries out its activity. For the human this constitutes the Knowledge of human civilization. The Third one is the Knowledge of the remote surroundings – the Space and the Universe. We have strong grounds to call these important Elements of Knowledge “The Three Great Elements of Knowledge.” Are we, the people, familiar with them? The First and the Third Knowledge are not completely known to us yet. We are still unsure who or what a human is, how we entered this world, and what the goal of our existence is. We also have not yet uncovered the structure of our Universe and the forces and energies that act in it. In my first article, titled “The Law on Global Development of Human Civilization” and published on December 12, 2005 , I made an effort to present the “Second Great Knowledge” – the knowledge about our civilization, its structure, and its development. That was an extensive enough and very detailed article, primarily aimed at young readers. In that article I tried to portray the structure of our civilization and the guidelines of its development very simply and intelligibly. After reading my article, every undergraduate or even a middle school student could clearly understand our development. The article was made so accessible on purpose, since in ten to twenty years from now, these young people will take the places of the contemporary managers and politicians. The human civilization does allow the concepts of society, social relations, and social development. Social development, however, pertains merely to the early stages of the evolution. Humans broke away from the animal world by moving onto a higher level of economic relations. Consequently, there are no complex social systems, socio-political structures, socio-economic structures, capitalism, or socialism; slave-owning and feudal systems and such have never existed. Our civilization has been developing in a very simple manner and is shaped by very simple processes. Humans live in an economy and under an authority. These are the two basic components of our civilization. No social component exists. This will become obvious to any undergraduate or middle school student after he or she reads the First article. Therefore:
As long as there is the Law, inferences can be derived from it. The new article presents the inference about the importance of the transition from the Second Level of energetic development to the Third. This is a very important situation. Certainly, the Law could produce inferences of a more underlying character, which would relate to the foundations and guidelines of the development of our civilization. Instead of devoting the First Consequence solely to the main conclusions, however, I decided to devote it to the conclusions that are the most important for the present time. This time relates to the period in our nearest future that is about 20 to 40 years ahead. My decision was founded by the fact that if the transition from the Second to the Third Level of energetic development is not made, then we would no longer need any of the other main concepts of our civilization. At that point we would finish our natural development path. This stage is the most important one; it is the critical transitional period in the development of our civilization. Due to this fact, I decided to elaborate this topic in the second article about the Law. In the third article I will present to the readers’ judgment the Second Consequence of the Law that will define the development path of our civilization.
The very disturbing tendencies in the political, economic, and ecological situations on our planet urge me to present the First Consequence of the Law to the readers’ judgment. I would advice those readers who did not familiarize themselves with my first article yet to read its full text in the archive or on my website (http://civilizationlaw.narod.ru/). In order to smoothly advance to the presentation of the Consequence, I will briefly repeat the main points of the first article:
The main feature and sign of the human civilization on Planet Earth is its economic character. Currently we undergo the economic phase of our development. Whereas, a long time ago, in the ancient times, people were undergoing the social phase. The time will come, though, when our civilization will leave the economic phase of its development and will advance to another phase at a higher level. This will happen since all the development that takes place in our Universe obeys the Law of Space Energy. Therefore:
Energy is the most important thing, while the search for liberty or happiness, the movement to the bright future, or the building of a new society are not. Therefore:
The cosmic development of our civilization took place according to the Law of Space Energy. This law is the main Law, and it subjugates everything else, for everything is Energy, Energy is everywhere, everything is made of Energy, everything requires Energy, and everyone wants Energy. Therefore:
The development of human civilization took place according to the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization, which is tightly related to and subordinated to the Law of Space Energy. Therefore:
In an effort to build a foundation for the Law, I proposed the concept of civilization development through transition from one Method of Production to the next. For this I suggested a new definition for the concept of “Method of Production” as well as a new argument base for the Law. The Law came out to be simple and intelligible, as any law should be. A law is always simple and clear, as opposed to a theory, which constitutes only a step towards the definition of a law. A theory, therefore, can be complex and intricate. Nevertheless, in our life we use different theories on social development which are incorrect and dangerous. Why do we use them? Because we haven’t discovered the Second Great Knowledge yet. Bellow I will try to present precisely this Knowledge to the reader.
Thus, economy and energy are the main factors that determine development and progress. For the beginning I advice the reader to renounce the widely accepted theory that states that we have developed from the primitive communal society to capitalism. Neither the primitive communal society, nor the slave-owning system, nor the feudal system, nor capitalism, nor socialism has ever existed. There is no society or social relations, either. There isn’t and there won’t ever be a post-industrial or informational society. There is no society at all. The human civilization has only two components or two facets: economy and power. There is no social component, and the classifications that suggest it are incorrect. Because the people did not know the correct Law that would describe the development of their civilization, different social experiments were possible. These experiments were the Revolutions that we later called Great – Bourgeois and Socialistic (by the way, I didn’t happen to hear about Great Feudal or Slave-owning Revolutions, perhaps, the theoreticians-experimenters had not yet arrived at the idea or people were smarter in the past). As a result of these experiments, countries and nations lost millions of people and suffered tremendous financial damage. Nevertheless, monuments on central squares were dedicated to some of the Great Experimenters, and children in festive clothes laid flowers in their honor. Due to the lack of the Second Great Knowledge, our civilization allowed Great Wars – World Wars – to occur. These events caused even greater losses. This, however, did not serve us as a lesson. Why then we, who consider ourselves very intelligent and developed, very civilized and educated, constantly hit the ground with our own forehead falling into holes in the ground, and then bravely stand up to overcome the obstacles that we had created ourselves? The conclusion is simple: perhaps, our civilization is not that wise and is not very civilized yet. We just think we are. As silly children we play with some shiny stickers, toys, and tell scary stories, but at the same time we try to seriously contemplate about our movement along the path of progress. Why? We are not mature yet. This is the simplest conclusion, but it is in agreement with the fact that all the problems of our civilization root from the lack of knowledge about how and where to go. This would be the most important practical Knowledge.
Now our civilization is once again preparing for a new big war. I don’t know whether it would be a World War and whether nuclear weapons would be used, but I am sure that we will flood our planet with blood one more time, enough to dedicate new monuments to Great Liberators and Conquerors once again. Why? Because we don’t know of and don’t follow the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization. Even so, we will still continue to think that we are very intelligent and civilized. Why does this happen? Because people always wanted to live in a happy, just, and free society. Another Great Experimenter had always appeared in time to tell people how they have to arrive to this bright future and how they have to build it. Since this Experimenter was not familiar with the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization, his program turned out to be destructive for millions of his followers. Since the people didn’t know the Law either, they believed their Great Leader and suffered dreadful losses. Some leaders have said that a new class society should be built, some impelled to create a clean higher nation and build the civilization under the its rule, some urged to behead their king and said that this is the only way to a happy life, some executed the government that preceded them. The methods for achieving the promising society that were proposed ranged from gas chambers and dictatorship to even a skillful use of a hoe. In one country, which also steadily pursued the promising society, several millions of skulls were broken with hoes by certain Great Experimenters. Then it became clear that this is not good. Why, then, people and nations allow such experiments to be conducted on themselves? Because they don’t know the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization. Before, there were only theories that explained the development of our civilization incorrectly, and there was no Law that would very simply and clearly show everybody, even the semi-literate people, what needs to be done to attain the “happy and just society.” For this reason, we are once again being prepared for a new big war. We are being brainwashed. We will continue to spend lots of time on deciding whose skin color is better and whose God is better. Then, after a new Great Battle for a new Great Truth, we will burry into the ground hundreds of millions of bodies of young men and women who should have spent their lives to create new ones. Afterwards we will dedicate new monuments to Great Generals and Great Experimenters, and on the new National Day of Remembrance new Presidents will make new great speeches. Mournful expressions will be on their faces. Some might even shed a tear. Ladies and gentlemen, if this is the case, maybe we should think of something more joyful? Maybe there is no need for more experiments? Perhaps, we should stop jumping off the roof with a determined and clever face expression. What should we do then? All we have to do is simply understand our previous development. The true picture of our development is very simple and clear. So, how have we been developing and where are we now?
I chose the concept of development by energy levels as the foundation for the proposed Law. The dynamics and development of the civilization are not based on justice, happiness, aspiration to liberty or independence, self-consciousness, or understanding the divine force. Energy is the key. Energy determines power and might. Let us repeat this word – Energy. First, I will propose the Law of Space Energy. I am not sure in its complete accuracy, however its argumentation does not constitute the main goal of my idea. The Law of Space Energy defines the Law of Development of Human Civilization. Further research in physics and cosmology will define this law precisely. According to the Law of Space Energy, civilizations can be classified by levels. Each level signifies the extent to which a certain type of energy is mastered by a civilization:
- the members of First Level civilizations use their own muscle or physical force or that of their animals to obtain the major part of the energy they need;
- the Second Level civilizations produce most of the energy they need by burning the natural resources of the planet – coal, oil, gas, or wood. Our civilization is at this level now. (Oh, how great and smart we are!);
- the Third Level is the level of hydrogen energy;
- the Fourth Level is the level at which the energy of the matter is used;
- the Fifth Level is the level of Space Energy (energy of the void, dark energy, energy of the dark matter, gravitational energy);
- the Sixth Level of space civilizations assumes the use of psychic energy as the main energy type.
There are six levels in total – let us memorize this number. Speaking in a simple language, there are six grades in a space school. Now, dear reader, you understand what a deep hole we are in. At present we are in the second grade. Moreover, it is not at all clear whether we would ever reach the third grade, because there are too many experimenters around. They will give us a new Great Idea again and suggest a clever way to attain a new happiness: a hoe in the their ideological or religious opponent’s skull. One could just hit him or her with a hoe or stuff him into a gas chamber and immediately become happy and absolutely free. One could also drop a bomb and attain a state of complete happiness and forever absolve oneself and one’s relatives. All of this is nonsense, however. Only Energy counts. Energy. Let us repeat one more time – Energy. Everything else is secondary. In order to easily understand the real picture, we will put it this way – as soon as one tames a new type of energy, one becomes happy and free. In other words, one can become free only when one has the required Energy, which provides might and power as well as fulfills the necessities of the people and the civilization. If we have little Energy, then the happiness we have is also scarce, but the problems we have are numerous: how to survive, how to resist the hunger, how to have a drink of clean water, how to have a breath of clean air, and how to escape the next Great Experimenter.
Great, let’s continue, dear reader. Now, we will observe the development of a primitive human tribe, or not even a human tribe yet but a herd of our animal ancestors. Let us examine where and how they obtained most of the products they needed. They gathered what the nature gave them. They hunted and fished. Where did they do this? In the wilderness or, in other words, in the natural sector of the economy. How did they do this? By gathering. Now, stay focused, please. For further argumentation of the Law, a new term must be introduced: method of production. However, since there hasn’t been and won’t ever be any capitalism, feudalism, slave-owning society, or primitive communal system, such methods of production haven’t existed and won’t ever exist. I’ve chosen an old name for a new term, because I did not manage to find a more appropriate one. Possibly, someone will suggest a more suitable term. Bellow is its definition:
A method of production is a concept that indicates in which economic sector and by which means an economic entity extracts or produces the major part of the products it needs.
The conclusion is that our wild ancestors’ tribes were not a part of a primitive communal system, society, or formation, but they belonged to the gathering method of production. That’s all. This is very simple, concise, and clear. This is the same as two by two equals four. The major differences between the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization and the obscure theories, however, arise from here: why it is not necessary to behead one’s King, why there is no need to execute one’s Government, why the most wild social experiments should not be conducted, why one shouldn’t chop one’s opponent’s head off with a hoe, why it is necessary to respect a your opponent’s God, which is different from the one you believe in, why we need to respect a different skin color and a different nationality without shouting at every corner that you’re better than somebody else. This is the beginning, for if we adapt the classification that there exists some kind of society as a basis, then, immediately the thought will come that this society could be improved through experiments, revolutions, wars, electoral systems, religious beliefs, and departures to the supernatural worlds and ideals. As soon as we mention any phenomenon, any scientist would ask himself what it is, where it originated, how it developed, and whether it is possible to control this process.
There is no society; there are only economy and power. It is impossible to improve something that does not exist. It is impossible to make revolutions and wage wars for the sake of something inexistent. It is impossible to fight for that which does not exist.
Furthermore, everything depends on Energy and on the extent to which a certain type of energy is mastered. A person doesn’t become happy from inserting a ballot into a ballot-box. One becomes happy and free when one flips the switch and a light turns on in one’s apartment. That is true because no ballot could save a person if he or she were deprived of Energy, which is food and electricity. A very strong person could survive believing in the ideal, but the entire civilization in general needs Energy. Energy is the only factor that affects the development of a civilization. Our position among the other civilizations is determined purely by Energy. You either burn wood or you travel to the neighboring galaxy on a comfortable spaceship. That’s all. You either have lots of energy or you live in its scarcity. If your case is the latter, then feel free to sit at a fire and consider yourself a Great Individual. Either you are at the second Space Energy Level and mess about in the mud to get some Energy and throw wood into the furnace or pour gasoline into the tank of your car, or you are at the fourth or fifth level and fly into space on a comfortable spaceship. I think everything is very simple and clear.
Good, dear reader, let’s return to our tribes. How did our further development take place? While at the stage of production by gathering, our wild ancestors discovered fire. This discovery allowed them to gradually advance to the Second Level of mastering Energy. They mastered the reaction for burning the natural resources of our Planet which is the one we still use today. That is a great achievement, isn’t it? At the same time, a very important change has occurred. When people lived in a herd or a tribe they lead a social way of life. At present many groups of animals also lead a social way of life – lions, hyenas, wolves. The high level relationships of some animals can even be aimed at production – those of ants and beavers, for example. Humans, however, managed to divert from these social relationships and advance to higher level ones – economic relationships. It all began with a very simple yet very important for the development of our civilization idea, which must have come into a village and into a really smart head in that village. The idea was to exchange a stick for a rock. After some time the exchange of goods for raw-materials and the stock exchange had appeared. We see them on TV now. We can watch how the contemporary smart brains stress and scream at these exchanges. Consequently, at its current development stage our civilization doesn’t have a social character but an economic one instead. The time will come, however, when the humankind will leave the economic stage of its development and enter the next one. I am uncertain about the name of this future stage, but I do have a guess. Each reader who has studied either this article or the first one on my website could independently draw a conclusion concerning the path of our future development. Later on, our ancestors had moved to a new method of production. What did they start making? What new method did they begin using to produce the major part of the necessary products? In which economic sector did they start producing? The main efforts have drifted from the wild woods to a cultivated field. Speaking in modern language, they began operating in the agricultural sector of the economy. How did people begin obtaining the main part of the necessary products and goods? The answer is simple – by the means of agricultural production. How can we name this production method? The answer is entirely simple – the agricultural method of production. Let us construct the succession of our movement from the production by the method of gathering towards the agricultural production method. This lasted for several thousands of years, until recently some countries moved on to the industrial method of production. How did they start obtaining the major part of the products they required? By the means of industrial production. In which economic sector did they carry on their activity? In the industrial sector. Some countries, though, remained at the agricultural production method. These countries are still there even now, in spite of great successes in their spiritual, moral, and social development. Just recently, in the middle of the twentieth century, some leading countries have advanced to the next method of production – to the scientific-industrial one. It’s main features include science laboratories, high-tech production, scientifically based management, and modern marketing. Some countries, which determine the level of development of our civilization, obtain the major part of the necessary products in the sphere of scientific-industrial production and using the scientific-industrial production method. Even their agricultural production became scientific-industrial. This is also true for the human services sphere. Some countries, on the other hand, stayed at the industrial method of production despite the many revolutions and millions of victims. There are even countries who are still stuck in the agricultural method of production. These countries have a strong aim for liberty, happiness, and democratic ideals, but their production suffers from problems. I think that everybody knows about the small difference between German, American, or Japanese production and technology and those of a small, quite country situated on the beach of a warm sea, where in the evenings sounds of guitar are heard and the nature itself contributes to rest and relaxation. The development of our civilization took place just like that. In my opinion, dear reader, everything is very simple and clear. It is as simple as two by two equals four. There is no need to draw complicated pictures of our civilization and look for any obscure forces in them, such as multi-vector tendencies, the struggle between North and South, developed and developing countries, countries of the first world and those of the third world, multidirectional and unidirectional worlds, centrifugal accelerations, complex structures, and so on, for no such things exist. Even if something from this list does exist, it is subordinate and secondary to the Law. All of this is presented and explained in detail in the article published on my website. In my article I also proposed a forecast for the subsequent development of our civilization. In fact, using the proposed rationale, any high school student can make such a forecast. I consider that the next method of production that the leading countries will advance to will be cyber-technical or robot-technical production method. The information on scientific research in creation of cybernetic organisms or robots, found on different scientific websites on the Internet, confirms this forecast.
Thus, let us define the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization:
“The civilization has been developing by transition from one method of production to the next. The main methods of production are the following: gathering, agricultural, industrial, and scientific-industrial.”
What do I repeat the underlying idea of the proposed Law for? In order to focus the reader’s attention onto our current position. This way it will become clear what we should aim for and what possible dangers for our civilization could lie ahead. For, it can be said that we are part of a society of incomplete happiness. How then could we advance to a superior system or formation, for example, to one of deeper happiness? What needs to be done to accomplish this? Maybe someone has to be beheaded again or several millions of people need to be massacred or should the hoe be used again to save ammunition? or should we gather into processions in the streets, sing, and give away flowers to people? or should we shout to the entire planet “People, love each other”?! New Big Leaders and Great Experimenters will come again. New experiments will be conducted again costing many millions of victims, many trillions of dollars in losses, and many years.
Now, dear reader, let us ask ourselves a very simple question. Does our civilization have the time, strength, means, and resources for these new experiments? We already don’t have any time left. We have already lost fifty years and trillions of dollars. I believe we don’t need any experiments. The proposed Law of Global Development of Human Civilization very simply and intelligibly shows what aim we should choose. This is the main question. This is the main answer. Where should our civilization head???
Do you, dear reader, think that this is a very big secret, restricted knowledge closed to the unenlightened? Let’s examine another scene. Let’s say a President of one of the most important countries of our planet, it doesn’t matter exactly who – the President of France , Russia , China , or America – happened to read this article. On the following day he decided to check if it is really true. In the morning he got ready for work, got in the car, and drove away with his entire suite. As always, he calmly followed the usual route. Suddenly, the President noticed an ordinary school building not far from the road. A surprising thought struck him. He ordered the driver to turn and drove up to the school. There was a commotion at the school. The poor Headmaster was shocked by the unexpected visit. The kids got excited, though. When would they ever get another chance to see a President in real life? Meanwhile, the latter got out of the car and asked the Headmaster to accompany him to the second grade classroom. The Headmaster tried to clarify why the President wanted to see precisely the second grade, since there were more interesting grades at his school such as the first and the graduating grades. The President, however, insisted on his wish to visit the second grade. Joined by his accompaniment the President entered the second grade classroom. The children stood up, greeted their favorite President, surrounded him, and full of interest began to ask questions. Finally, the President himself decided to do that which brought him to that school in the first place. He took the hand of a boy with a smart face expression and asked his name.
“My name is Pier (or John, or Ivan, or Juan – it doesn’t matter),” the boy answered.
Then, full of emotions from awaiting for the disclosure of a great mystery, the President asked the boy, “Tell me, my friend, what grade are you in now?”
“I’m in the second grade,” John answered.
“Tell me, Ivan,” the President went for another question, “you are in the second grade now, but where will you go afterwards, what will you aim for, what will your goal be, or what is your further mission?”
Surprised by such a question, Juan looked at the President and said, “Mr. President, you seem to be a very smart person, but the questions you ask are completely pointless. It is very strange why my father had voted for you. All right, I’ll explain. If I’m in the second grade, then where should I go? To the third grade. What is so hard to understand here? Every student knows that. If you’re in the second grade, then you should move on to the third. If you’re in the fourth grade, you have to go to the fifth afterwards.”
The President was so surprised that for a long time he gaped at the ceiling with an eyesight of an enlightened politician.
“Tell me, Pier,” he spoke to the boy after a while and hesitated for a second, “what do you have to do for this? Well, it looks simple enough: you are in the second grade now, so afterwards you need to go to the third grade. What do you need to do, though, to accomplish this?”
“Oh, dear Mr. President, this again is very simple. Imagine what happened if I were running around the school yard, brandishing a club or a bat, and yelling that I am the strongest, the coolest, the smartest, the most handsome, that my skin color is better, that my lifestyle is the best, that my father is the best voter, or that my school is the best. Well, first of all, the boys from the school next door could beat me up with the same club. In this case, it would remain unclear who would have suffered the most and what would have come out of it. Therefore, Mr. President, I simply need to study. This way I will quietly advance to the third grade and later to the fourth. That’s about it, Mr. President. I think everything is very simple and clear.”
“Actually, it is very simple and clear,” thought the President. “Where are we now? At the Second Level of Space Energy. Where should we head? The answer is to the Third Level – to the level of hydrogen energy. Well, this is so simple: you are in the second grade at school, so where should you go next? To the third grade. To achieve this there is no need to shoot anybody, to behead anyone, to shout that your nationality or your skin color is better, to bomb anyone, nor to brandish the nuclear club.”
The President bid farewell to the Headmaster and had a long handshake with bewildered John, saying, “Good bye, dear Sensei.”
Then he turned to his accompaniment and said, “Well, I’m tired of repeating this simple truth. I think that only a complete idiot can’t realize such a simple thought. If you are in the second grade, you have to head to the third. It’s that simple. Tomorrow this must be written in my messages to the Parliament and to the people.”
For a long time after such a great enlightenment, the President remained very nervous. His work did not move on, and he went to bed early but could not fall asleep for a long time. The brightened pictures continued to appear in front of his eyes. “Really, everything is so simple, while I thought that I need to send an aircraft carrier somewhere and bomb someone or capture a piece of land in a desert with at least a drop of oil, sending thousands of soldiers to death. All of this turns out to be complete nonsense. All we have to do is to move from the second grade to the third, or from the Second Energy Level to the Third one. This transition would immediately solve many problems. We have everything we need for this. We have lots of water. Our whole planet is water. Water is Energy. If we had enough Energy, we could build powerful stations for water desalinization along the entire coast of Africa to produce clean fresh water. This water would suffice to irrigate droughty areas. This would solve the agricultural problem and the food problem. Healthcare situation as well as living conditions would improve, while unemployment would drop. We would no longer see terrible images on TV, such as dying children with swollen tummies and big heads, on which fat flies can crawl because the poor children don’t have enough strength to drive these fat, greasy parasites away from their thin bodies. In the arid regions of Asia , we would solve this problem in the same way. The problem of North and South would be gone. All we need for this is just lots and lots of clean water. This water gives Energy, which we then use to desalinize sea water. Thus, the job could be done by finding a new source of Energy and designing a new type of energy stations that would work on water. This is what we need to do and fast.”
The President imagined how he would come into his office the following day and start making phone calls to the G8 Leaders and to the President of the UN Security Council to suggest to them his very simple plan. He would propose to discuss the question of advancement to the third grade of space school or to the Third Energy Level at the next Session of the UN General Assembly. He would suggest to create new science labs, as many as necessary – let it be fifty or let it be one hundred – in different countries, in different regions of the planet. He would suggest to the Presidents to invest millions or trillions of dollars in his plan – as much as necessary. He would suggest to involve in his plan as many scientists – physicists, chemists, and engineers – as needed and to pose one simple problem to them: to create a device that would work on simple sea water to produce Energy. Tens or hundreds of thermonuclear energy stations should be built, instead of just one. This way we would get a chance to save our civilization and preserve ourselves as an intelligent species. Gradually, however, the tired man was overcome by sleep, and in the middle of the night from deep emotions and the images he went through the man had a stroke. The heart of this altruistic and honest person who wished happiness and prosperity to the entire humankind could not endure any longer. On the following morning the President did not call anyone…
It would be a great pity for this to happen. Why? Because to do what we need to, we must hurry and lose no more time on empty drivel. Why? Because our civilization has very little time left. How far away, then, is the end? It is as close as the end of the industrial oil extraction. After that the end comes. For a short while we could hold out on natural gas, but even this is could not be done everywhere. In some places nuclear energy would prolong the agony. This, however, would not save us. Nevertheless, the rate of oil extraction is increasing. Oil is needed not only as Energy. Our civilization produces almost everything from oil: from perfume to plastic. There are fifty to eighty years left before everything is over. We should spend this time on scientific research, development of new technology, design of new experimental models, and creation of new types of industry that would use new types of Energy and which would save our world. Recently there was a message in mass media stating that in France the construction of a thermonuclear energy station had started. This is it – the beginning of a new era. May the God be with us and may Allah help us and may everything be successful. The scientists say, though, that we need another 40-50 years for the thermonuclear energy to enter the industrial level. This first thermonuclear station is experimental but not industrial. What if we don’t manage? Image another scene. A worker in overalls comes up to a stopcock on a pipe and starts to turn it. The manager’s voice is heard from behind the scenes, “That’s all. The last barrel of oil was pumped out of the bowels of the Earth.” At about the same time another technician in a white lab coat comes up to a big switch at a power plant and slowly turns it off. The manager’s voice is again heard from behind the scenes, “That’s all. There is no more energy.” The planet falls into darkness… What next? Next, hungry crowds of demented people will plunder all the stores, food warehouses and will then start eating one another. The civilization will consequently fall to the First Space Energy Level – to the level at which people use their own muscle power and that of their animals to produce the major part of the Energy they need. By the terrestrial guidelines, this would mean the transfer to production by the means of gathering. We will return to gathering worms and roots from the ground. Someone might think that some people will escape such grievous fate. Someone might think that he or she could live through all of this in a deep underground bunker or on an uninhabited island. No. As long as there will be professionals who build bunkers, there will be professionals who plunder bunkers. Professional pirates will appear just in time to capture those uninhabited islands. Maybe, someone will think that the army will save the day and will maintain order. No, they could only make the order 1last for a short while. Military units will shoot the hungry crowds, and the local commanders will start controlling the situation. They will disobey the central government authorities and create their own enclaves. That will last until the final remains of Energy and weapons are gone. Afterwards, the transition to the wild state will begin, because such a chaos would destroy the science labs. We will die out together, and the entire planet will turn into a cemetery. There is one sad detail about it, though: relatives come to a normal cemetery to lay flowers, but nobody would come to our cemetery. We will lay there together – people of different religion, different nationality, different skin color, and from different countries.
Imagine another scene. An extraterrestrial spaceship flies by a wild, dying planet on an excursion to the deserted corners of the Galaxy.
“The last time I was here was a hundred years ago when I was a small girl like you are now,” quietly and with a slight sadness mother-alien begins to tell a story to her daughter. “What a pretty planet it was! They had everything, these earthlings: soil, water, lots and lots of water, air, and nature. There were only two things they didn’t have: brains and common sense. They died because of that. Thus, my daughter, study well at school. When you grow up and go to the University, remember that you should not think about how much better you are then a civilization of smart ants or blue-skinned dwarfs, instead you should make all the effort to advance from the fourth Space Energy Level to the Fifth one. This will make you free and happy.”
“Tell me, mom, what prevented the dwellers of this planet from saving their civilization?” the girl asked.
Her mother looked through the porthole in which lifeless landscapes and city ruins floated by and then answered, “When you go to the University, you will study political science. This subject will have a section titled ‘A Concise History Course about Dead Civilizations.’ You will find out that each civilization has a critical period. In order to overcome it, the civilization needs to concentrate its main effort on the major problems instead of wasting time, strength, and resources on secondary issues. This is exactly what happened to the earthlings. Instead of solving the problem of transition from the second energy level to the third, they continued to argue, were constantly at war, and tried to prove to each other that someone has a greater right for the truth, that someone is stronger and has enough power to make others live by his rules. They spent time and strength on these things, until in one dreadful moment they realized that they already have no time left. They did not manage to create new technology and industrial equipment models for production of new type of Energy in time, while the old type of Energy ran out. Wars have started for the remains of Energy and clean water. Climate problems appeared. All of this later turned into chaos and the end had come. Maybe, it was the soul of this planet that could not withstand such an overwhelming avalanche of negative energy. Who knows, who knows… Everything, in the end, depends on Energy.”
“Mom, but it is so simple. Why couldn’t humans understand this?” the girl anxiously exclaimed.
“Do you remember yourself in your early age,” the mother said smiling, “when you played with the girl next door in the sandbox? How often did you fight with each other because of toys or for a place near a stream or a fire? Do you remember how a fat and strong boy from the yard next door disturbed you and didn’t let you play? He used to run around with a club and shout that he is a policeman in charge of our street and that everyone has to play by his rules, because his father also was a policeman. Later, the boys from our yard got together and beat him up. After that he minded his own business and left you and your friends alone and let you play the build-a-house game. Now, try to remember how important and significant this seemed to you?” the mother smiled again. “Earthlings were the same small space children in their Second Space Level of Energy. They had an abundance of different treasures, especially water, but this did not prove useful to them. Too much wealth is detrimental; it encumbers to accurately evaluate the situation. The humans thought that they would always live this way. It is important, however, not only to have the treasure but also to use it timely and wisely. The humans could not do it, whereas our civilization could. This is why we are on this space cruise liner right now and are watching this dying planet.”
“How did we manage to do it?” the girl asked.
“This wasn’t easy. It’s hard to explain. Maybe our scientists and engineers were smarter or our leaders were wiser. We encountered enough problems, but in the critical moment we managed to avoid big wars and devote all of our strength to scientific research and later to the construction of a space fleet. The transition from the Third Space Level to the Fourth was an absolutely smooth one. Problems arose in outer space when a civilization of horrible space bugs tried to capture us. If they had won, then we would not exist now, they would’ve simply eaten us. That was a very big and terrible war. Your grandfather died in it. Therefore, your dad became a space fleet officer to protect us in case of danger. Daddy’s spaceship will soon arrive to the base and we will be together again for a long-long time, until their next patrol.”
The mother’s face became sad and uneasy, and her daughter gave her a hug to set her mind at rest and to draw her away from the sad thoughts.
“What about the Fifth Level civilizations?” she asked. “Do they exist? What if they would want to capture us?”
“Yes, they do exist. They are so big and powerful that the entire space belongs to them anyway, so they don’t have the need to conquer anyone. They are already solving other types of problems. They are strong and wise, but they don’t even communicate with us, so we don’t even know who they are – humans or cybernetic organisms. Once in a while our space scouts by accident meet their spaceships in deep space, but there’s nothing more. You know that your grandparents are physicists and work in a science lab, right? They say that we need 100-150 years more of scientific research before we can advance to the Fifth Level. Nothing at all, though, is known about the Sixth Level civilizations. Nobody knows for sure whether they exist or not. Daddy did mention that once in deep space their scouts met scouts from a different civilization that lives at the very edge of the Universe. Those scouts they met told our officers that they had heard of a very far away civilization which had supposedly advanced to the Sixth Level and disappeared from space after that and that nobody has ever heard anything about it since then. The scouts don’t like to discuss this for some reason, though. Perhaps, there is a secret about this,” the mother finished her story.
“Mom, our guide has just said that there are still separate groups or herds of wild people on Earth. They have already forgotten their prior knowledge and live like wild monkeys. Tell me, why wouldn’t we help them? We can give them fire and knowledge again, can’t we?” the girl asked again.
“No, my dear, we can’t do this. Each civilization needs to complete its path by itself, without any help from the side, because afterwards a civilization might say that the help it got was bad, incorrect, or insufficient. Such examples already took place in our space, and nothing good ever came out of it. Therefore, let these earthlings do their work, and if they succeed, they could proudly exclaim, ‘Yes! We did it!’ In case they fail, though, well, too bad. It would be a pity, but it will be their problem but not ours.”
Now, dear reader, may each of us answer the following question. How can we do it? How to move on to the third grade of the space school? At the same time let us ask another very important question – do the leaders of our civilization know where to guide the humankind and how to get to the state of complete happiness and liberty??? I would advice the interested readers to surf the Internet for sites with political news and leaf through newspapers with electoral speeches, annual messages, and different Presidential statements addressed to Parliaments and to nations. What would we find there? What is the main idea and the general content of the majority of the speeches, statements, and actions of our Politicians and Leaders? If we sum everything up, we would get about the following: protect the national interests, protect the sovereignty of the nation, follow national interests, guard the national sovereignty, uphold national interests… You can continue on your own, dear reader. You could also come across some general talk about achieving the state of greater freedom, greater happiness, and greater democracy or about the improvement of electoral technology. At times someone threatens somebody else with a huge nuclear club and promises to bomb someone. Happy end. Now, let us, my friends, follow the straight road to our common graveyard hand-in-hand. With such ideas as above we will surely get there in 50-100 years.
However, dear reader, many nations, which are currently at the agricultural level of production already don’t have enough clean water and electricity. To this day many people don’t have the basic benefits that the civilization could give: neither a toilet, nor electricity, nor anything else of interest. How will they live after industrial oil extraction stops? Maybe, very poorly? No. They will live the same as before. This is, actually, the majority of the population of the Earth. When Europeans and North Americans snatch the last can from each other, the people who are at the agricultural method of production won’t need to overcome any major problems. They will live just as they had before. Many nations also don’t have many benefits that are brought by the civilization. They don’t have clean water, they don’t have sufficient medical assistance, and they don’t have a well balanced diet or even a sufficient amount of food.
Now, dear reader, answer the following question yourself: would these nations become very disappointed when European and North American metropolises turn into an arena for fighting for the last can? Would such a crisis affect them very much? Those who have actually seen the life of these people somewhere up in the mountains of Asia won’t doubt a bit that the effect of the energy crisis on their day-to-day lives would be minimal. Yes, after some time the crisis will reach them as well, but… We have to also ponder about the fact that the most vulnerable countries are the ones which determine the level of development of our civilization. Precisely these countries will suffer the most as a result of the crisis.
Now, here is another question for the interested readers: did anyone forecast that such events would take place? I will once again advice the reader to take a look at some Internet websites that feature political news. What do the politicians and journalists write about? They write precisely the same thing. They point out that the situation brought by the crisis could be very hard and tragic. Thus, it is not an invention of mine. As a matter of fact, I regard scenarios such as “The Matrix” and “The Terminator” very seriously. If we move on to the Third Energy Level, all of this will happen, all of this awaits us, but later... Maybe that could be a reason for criticizing my views. This, however, might be a positive thing. I remember the ideas of the great fiction writer Jules Verne; about 99% of his predictions and scenarios came true in our modern life. Because of this fact, I regard the forecasts made by contemporary analysts and political scientists seriously as well. Do our political leaders, though, regard them seriously? I do not see this happening. For example, recently the mass media spread the information about a meeting of European leaders, ministers of energy, and officials from the energy sector. What do you think they were discussing there? Could it be that they thought about where to find billions of dollars to open new labs and build new thermonuclear power stations? No. All of them were thinking about how they will obtain and divide the Russian natural gas. But why? Because nobody is concerned about the outlook for 30-50 years ahead. For the time being each political party is concerned about the tiny pimple on its own nose. Their main objective is to stay in power until the next elections. How can anyone think of the problems of the entire humankind with such important issues at hand?! Who does ever think of the problems of our civilization? Who is responsible for its fate? Here’s an example. Let’s take an organization, a commercial firm, or a country – it has a leader who cares about it, has rights and obligations, and assumes responsibility. Next, let’s take the civilization of the people of planet Earth. Who assumes obligations and responsibilities for its fate? Maybe the President of the UN Security Council? or the G8 Leaders? Who will be accountable in case of a huge crisis? Maybe the big leaders don’t care about where their grandchildren will spend their time – in the rooms of an underground bunker or on a sunny meadow near a clean stream, running with a doggy. Is there any difference or not? It turns out that nobody is accountable for the fate of our civilization. It’s a paradox: there is a structure, but nobody is responsible for it. This reminds us of a “kolkhoz” – a Soviet collective farm.
At the same time, the major part of the humankind will never be concerned with the problems of the residents of countries that are at the scientific-industrial production method, when the latter will face the irreversible processes. What would these people say, sitting at their fire somewhere up in the Hindu Kush mountains or in the deserts of Central Asia ? They will say that these Europeans and Americans had everything one could possibly need to keep the civilization alive: Great Presidents, armies, money in banks, scientists, labs, and a powerful industry. Do they expect us to give them food and shelter now, after they lost everything and ruined the entire civilization? Not even close! We will hit any European who swims to our shore with a row on the head and push him back into the water. Do you think this is an exaggeration? Do you think that anybody would think about how to give assistance to the dying cities and metropolises? No. Nobody has the means for such assistance anyway. Perhaps, a part of North Americans could find a chance for survival in the Northern regions of Canada , which are rich in game and fish, while a part of Europeans could find a home in the vast and spacious Siberia . Do you need this, though, ladies and gentlemen??? Maybe now someone will say that this is an exaggeration? Maybe I’m the only one forecasting such a tragic future. If this is the case, I will again advice the interested reader to surf the Internet.
If we did, we would notice that very many political scientists and journalists make negative forecasts regarding the development of our civilization. The range of these forecasts is very limited: (a) little trouble; (b) serious difficulties; and (c) a complete disaster.
In order not to sound unfounded, I will give an example of an article that I really liked: “Waiting for the lights to go out” by Bryan Appleyard, published on October 16, 2005 in “The Times Magazine.” What makes this article stand out from the rest is its author’s effort not only to portray future disasters but also to suggest his own solutions to problems. For example, Bryan Appleyard argues for more resolute steps to be taken towards the transition to electric vehicles and to energy saving technology. Needless to say, this is a very important step. The author also talks about a drastic decrease in the number of scientific ideas in the present times. This is a very strong article, and there are many more similar ones. I could add another advice that corresponds to the direction of the above mentioned steps. I would advice the contemporary young parents to have their children practice archery as a sport. This way your children will have a chance to teach your grandchildren to master the bow. In about 50 years this profession – archer – will be needed the most, especially when ammunition and rifles will become useless. Those who will have this skill will surely not die from hunger and will be able to defend themselves. Do you think these words contain any humor at all? Only a person who only saw a real forest and mountains on TV can think so. An archer is the new Hero of the future, the new Rambo, and the new James Bond.
Yes, I do adhere to the idea that if our civilization fails to advance to the Third Energy Level, then the scenario described by option (c) – a complete disaster – awaits us. Yes, some people will continue to live as they did before: cooking flat round cakes and frying the meat of a killed antelope.
There is an abundance of water on our planet. Consequently, we have lots of hydrogen. All of this water, however, is salty. To get fresh water from sea water a big amount of Energy is required. Once you have a lot of Energy, you’ll have a lot of clean water. Some political scientists assert that the clean water resources will soon determine the power of a country. Oil is running out. What is becoming the most important? The example of some very rich Middle Eastern countries shows that the possession of considerable amounts of Energy (which is oil and oil-dollars) allows to obtain a big amount of clean water – so much of it that each bush has a separate stream for irrigation and the country looks like the Garden of Eden. This is temporary, however. As soon as the oil runs out, the oil-dollars will stop flowing. What will happen then under the hot sun in the dessert? The scenario is disturbing. What is the conclusion? The scientists must find out the development of which type of Energy is the most promising path: thermonuclear energy, cold thermonuclear synthesis, or a combination of both. Now let us ask the most important question: what does hydrogen energy on the industrial scale of the entire planet mean? It means that any resident of Africa, South America, Arabia, or Siberia can walk up to the seashore with a bucket, fill it up with water, pour the water into a device, and have lights and warmth appear in his wigwam, yurt, or shack. He could then turn on the TV, the fridge, and the air conditioning. This is the abundance of Energy we are looking for. This is the state of more energy, more freedom, and more happiness. A similar system to the one in the shack would be used in apartment buildings. In the same way Energy could be obtained to power a large factory or a powerful spacecraft: imagine pumping a ton of water from the sea, and having the factory work and the spaceship fly into space. This is what we call the Third Space Level of Energy.
If we speak of different countries of our planet separately, each has its own mission. While some countries need to move from the agricultural method of production to the industrial one, others need to move from the industrial production method to the scientific-industrial one. A few countries, however, are already preparing to transfer to the next method of production – to the cyber-technical and robot-technical one. Future discoveries in medicine, biology, and electronics will make this transition possible if there will be enough time, energy, brains, and common sense. Certainly, while we will be inside the economic loop of our development we will have to face the consequences of the fight for big amounts of money. People are the same everywhere: whether in Ancient Rome or in a new space base on a deserted planet. This will not change until our civilization enters the Sixth Energy Level, since at that point we would also leave the economic stage of our development.
What dangers await us while we move along this way? What could hinder the transition of the humankind from the second space school grade to the third? I would recommend the reader to go online and surf the sites in the subject area of political and scientific news, as well as take a look at what people write about in the newspapers. There we would find many disturbing forecasts made by political scientists and columnists from different countries. Clean water scarcity is deemed very dangerous and may even lead to war. The environmental problems, such as the global warming and the rising ocean level, are not less important. The biggest danger is posed by the oil shortage, which also has a potential to lead to big wars. The aggravation in the relations between China and the USA is alarming. Many authors directly write that at the current rapid rate of economic development in China , in 10-15 years the relations between the two countries may aggravate to the point when they may lead to a big war, which might involve nuclear weapons. I am writing these lines not only because I pity the lives of hundreds of thousands or millions of young Chinese or American men who would burn in the furnace of the future war as well as the moment when another carpet-bagger would mount the rostrum and would ask his fellow citizens to rise in the memory of those who have fulfilled their duty. He or she would have a sorrowful face expression and those present would have to shed a tear. I, therefore, stress that however hard one might look in the Law, one cannot find a consequence that would impel someone to fight. The Law does not have such a consequence or any reason for it. We must only proceed to a new method of production and a new Energy Level. This will bring us to a state where everyone will have enough of everything. The transition to the next Hydrogen Energy Level would solve almost all the problems that relate to ensuring life, food, clean water, and a clean environment. It would allow us to open new markets in tens of countries which are at the agricultural production method now. Then, there will be enough space for both American and Chinese goods. The new type of Energy will require the creation of a new engine. With the advent of new engines, a space fleet could be built. The process of solving this problem will allow to employ the entire population of the earth. Can anyone perceive a reason to go to war in any of the above? In case someone does feel an urge to fight, he or she could go ahead. First let us advance to the Third Space Level of Energy, solve the problems of top-priority, so that we don’t end up all together on one big cemetery named Planet Earth, and then you can take clubs in your hands again and continue to sort out your relationships and figure out who’s better and who’s the culprit, and what should be done about it.
Certainly, there are many arguments that some people might bring in favor of the necessity and even utility of wars. I will not dispute this question since it is not part of the topic that this article focuses on. I am not discussing the issue of the morality of wars or their utility for the economic development of our civilization. From the household perspective, everybody is against wars. The sight of crying elderly people and children, ruined houses, and refugees who try to escape the bloodthirsty hordes of another experimenter makes everybody suffer and worry. Yet, for some reason many people manage to make a lot of money on this economic undertaking named “war.” My article as well as the proposed Law are not propaganda for the antiwar movement and have nothing to do with pacifism. The main goal of the proposed Law and the conclusions derived from it is the substantiation of a completely different idea. One thought, however, could be emphasized. Once the civilization will move on to the Third Energy Level, and the leading countries will advance to the next method of production – robot-technical or cyber-technical – and the major problems with ensuring life and improving the living conditions are solved, what would anyone fight for? Yes, there will still be problems, but those will be other type of problems. When people obtain enough clean water, food, and energy and stop thinking about survival, they will encounter other problems. Their solution, however, would take place already in milder conditions and in a calmer setting.
Therefore, today our goal should be the following: “Our civilization needs a new type of energy, a new engine, and a new space fleet.”
To those fond of war, I would recommend to take another walk through the Internet and look for information from the front lines of the hot war. Which war? – you would ask. The mankind has been waging a terrible and irreconcilable war for a long time. Our opponent is very powerful and treacherous. We cannot ask him for mercy, we cannot yield ourselves prisoners to him, we cannot ask him to abide the rules set by the Geneva Convention relative to Humane Treatment of Prisoners of War. This is the ultimate war. The price for this war is the life of the entire humankind. Unfortunately, we will lose this war. Who’s the opponent, then? The opponents are viruses and bacteria. The front line reports are the news from science labs. Our opponents have already began to change the climate and the living conditions on the planet into more suitable ones for them. They are already working on the bottom of the ocean and in the water. When there becomes much of something, that something acquires a collective intellect. This intellect is aimed at the annihilation of humans. The Internet will be destroyed first, and after that is our turn. Some scientists say that people will start dying from a cut on a finger again, because the antibiotics will no longer protect us. The time will come for us to flee our Planet, which will look like a warm, nasty swamp. We will be running to the spaceships and the viruses will grab our legs and drag us back into their swamp. We will leave to other planets and space bases, but they will reach us there as well, and we will either end the cycle of our development or become cybernetic organisms. If that would be the case, however, we would have to fight against electronic viruses instead of the biological ones. They will defeat us anyway. Nothing terrible will happen though. This warm swamp will produce new more complex forms of life, and later a new human and a new civilization will come to life. Everything will repeat itself. We only have to make sure not to break the flow of this natural evolutionary development because of our own stupidity. According to the Law, our victory would constitute the advancement of our civilization to the Sixth Space Level of Energy and the transition to the psychic method of production. All of this, however, is far away from now. Today we are occupied with the immediate dangers. Therefore, ladies and gentlemen, if you want to survive invest in labs and science. Lots of money should be invested – trillions of dollars. The powerful force of science and teams of scientists should be engaged. We must fight against real threats but not against imaginary dangers. The real threats don’t care what skin color you have and which God you believe in. We will die off together either from the lack of oil or water or from viruses.
Let us define the First Consequence of the Law of Global Development of Human Civilization:
The current critical stage of the development of our civilization is related to the problem of the transition to the Third Energy Level. The leading countries, which determine the level of the development of our civilization, should not be entangled into the big war and should not waste strength, resources, and time on this secondary undertaking. All the efforts should be concentrated on the solution of the transition to the Third Energy Level problem. For this, each leading country should focus all its efforts on the maintenance of order on its territory. This will allow to conduct the work in science and production necessary for the design of new technology in the energy field. The solution of this problem will allow our civilization to enter the Third Space Level of Energy and will allow the leading countries to move on to the next method of production – cyber-technical or robot-technical.
In my opinion, dear reader, everything is very simple and clear, and there is no need to look for the society of all-embracing liberty and happiness.
Let’s review. In my first article I made an effort to disclose the Second Great Knowledge – the knowledge of human civilization, its structure, and the guidelines of its development. The second article showed a way to advance to the Third Energy Level which would allow us to avoid the immediate dangers and survive in the nearest future. In the third article I will try to present the choice of our civilization and determine the path of our future development.
P.S. In fact, dear reader, I believe that my article turned out too optimistic. Rereading it the 151 st time, I arrive at the conclusion that my assessments are very mild and leave room for future optimism. This is not the way it should be, however. We have neither optimism nor future. We have spent our time, we have wasted our time, and we have missed our chance. The made-up dialog between the mother and her daughter, representatives of an extraterrestrial civilization, pertains more to reality than to fiction. How great it would feel to be wrong! No, I’m not, though… We simply don’t manage in time. We won’t be able to advance to the Third Level, because there is no serious scientist who would know how to accomplish this transition. There is no real way to achieve our goal. There is no practical way, there is only theory. Decades are needed before experimental models could be created. The thermonuclear station in France is merely experimental but not an industrial one. Industrial technologies, on the other hand, take many times longer to develop than the experimental ones, for it is necessary to conceive how to actually turn thought and idea into real metal and industrial equipment. This is the reason I tend to think that the scientific community is close to panic, for nobody can suggest anything concrete. Even the discovery of several more large oilfields in the vast Northern territory of Russia will not save our civilization. What do we have left to do? We can only continue to develop hydro and nuclear energy production. Geographically, there are almost no more suitable places for hydroelectric power stations, while the nuclear energy is not being promoted in the developed countries due to safety issues. It is also impossible to quickly create an infrastructure for capturing and processing of solar energy. In other words, we are at a dead end. To conceal this fact, the politicians draw our attention away onto secondary problems, because nobody is really accountable for anything and nobody carries any responsibility. This is the field where the Hague Tribunal should unfold its activity. We are simply short on time and ONLY A MIRACLE COULD SAVE US. For example, an accidental discovery in physics could allow us to advance to the Fourth Space Level of Energy or even to the Fifth one. Who knows, maybe, we’re lucky? A new Prophet might come and save us. We cannot do anything by ourselves, though. We are out of time. When did we loose it, and how much of it did we lose? The work on thermonuclear energy should have been started roughly in 1946 or at least in 1953. What was everybody busy with at that time? Cold War is the answer. All the decades of time and financial resources we needed so much were spent in vain, for no particular reason. Decades of time and trillions of dollars went down the drain. Our best bet, therefore, is to master archery.
Oleg Kropivnitskiy is a Russian historian.