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UK Politics: Brown Down, Not Out

Abdul Ruff - 5/11/2008

In the 1st May 2008 local elections Labor Party suffered their worst results in 40 years finishing in third place with a projected 24% share of the national vote. The New Labor era that started with Tony Blair’s arrival as UK premier ended miserably with Blair himself opting out of 10 Downing Street on account of corruption scandals and failed terror war. This led to replacement of Blair by Brown last year to gear the party to the general poll. However, the fortunes have not been different in the recent poll.

Labor Party suffered a net loss of 331 seats in local elections in England and Wales on 1 May. The Conservatives grabbed 44 per cent of the vote, with the Liberal Democrats winning 25 per cent, pushing the Labor Party to the third position. The ruling Labor lost as many as 400 council seats, mostly to Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Britai n’s Labour Party lost control of London, forcing Prime Minister Gordon Brown to rethink his strategy to avoid losing the next national poll.

Conservative Boris Johnson, a journalist-turned-lawmaker prone to gaffes, wrested the prized post of London mayor from Labor's maverick Ken Livingstone, who has run the sprawling metropolis of some 7.5 million people since 2000. Johnson said he hoped his victory represented a turning point for the party which has been in opposition since Blair swept to power in 1997. In the process the British National Party (BNP) has made a rare inroad in politics. For the past 10 years there have been predictions that the B N P could achieve a major electoral breakthrough by winning its first seat in the Greater London Assembly and the BNP and its supporters are cheering the success of Richard Barnbrook's election to the Assembly.

Prime Minister Brown is mounting a final fight-back after Labour crashed to its worst electoral drubbing for a generation at the hands of the Conservative Tories and criticism mostly form opposition wings intensified of his record as Prime Minister. But Brown struck a new note of contrition as he confessed in a series of interviews to making a string of mistakes in his first 10 months in Downing Street . He acknowledged he had made mistakes over the decision to axe the 10p tax rate, spending "too little time" thinking about getting his message across to the public and allowing speculation about a possible early general election "go too long".

Brown said will attempt to regain the political initiative during the next few weeks by demonstrating that his administration is not out of touch with ordinary voters' concerns. He said he would be "taking the fight to the Conservative Party" over the next few months, which he said was "slick" and "impressive in its salesmanship" but short on substance. "Of course we can recover from this position. First of all by sorting out the immediate problem with the economy and showing people we can come through as we have in the past very difficult economic times. "Secondly by showing people that we have the vision of the future that will carry this country optimistically in my view into its next phase."

The Conservatives, the once dominant party of Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill, were in buoyant mood after more than a decade in the political wilderness. They scored victories in the north of England where they have struggled and in Labour heartlands in Wales . Labour lost Reading council, its last remaining stronghold in the wealthy southeast of England . "I think this is a very big moment for the Conservative Party, but I don't want anyone to think that we would deserve to win an election just on the back of a failing government," said Conservative leader David Cameron.

Defeat of Labor

UK has witnessed what has been expected since the days when former premier Tony Blair faced criticism at home his foreign policy and involvement of Labor politicians in corruption scandals that rocked the government forcing him to quit 10 Downing Street to make Brown assume his mettle to gear the Labor party to power in the general poll after 2 years. It seems even Tony’s departure to take up the Quartet chief to mediate peace in Middle East and Brown’s promises could not cut much ice with the English voters.Worried about their own future, many Labour lawmakers are unhappy with Brown's decision last year to abolish a 10 percent tax rate band, which helped lower earners, to fund a cut in the main tax rate to 20 percent from 22 percent.


"I will be judged on whether we take the right long-term choices for the British economy,” Brown said on BBC's Andrew Marr show in early January 2008. James Gordon Brown (1951) took office as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on 27 June 2007, three days after becoming leader of the Labor Party. Prior to this he served as the Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair from 1997 to 2007, becoming the United Kingdom's longest serving Chancellor in modern history since Nicholas Vansittart in the early 19th century and during his tenure UK economy made significant raises.

The May 2008 election results were a major blow to Brown, who enjoyed a brief honeymoon with voters after he took over from Tony Blair, but has since been beset by economic turmoil, industrial unrest, administrative blunders and an image problem. People have sent a clear and strong message. Labour party got just 24 percent for of the national vote in the local elections -- its worst share since comparable records began in 1973. With all the results counted from local councils in England and Wales , Labour had lost 331 councillors and the Conservatives had gained 252. Anything more than 200 losses for Labour would be a very bad result. "It's clear to me that this has been a disappointing night, indeed a bad night for Labour," Brown told reporters. "My job is to listen and to lead and that is what I will do."

Labor strategists are alarmed by the 20-point lead the Tories achieved over Labor in last week's town hall elections. If repeated in a general election, it would be enough to put David Cameron in power with a majority of more than 100. Labour ministers and lawmakers said the government had failed to address Britons' fears of rising food and energy prices, higher mortgages and a possible housing market slump. Brown had urged voters to judge him on his performance during 2008 as he warned it was going to be a "very big year" with major economic problems looming. The Prime Minister said that 2008 was going to be a "decisive year for the economy" and his political future rested on whether Britain was prepared for the challenges which lie ahead.

Optimism: LABOR REAFFIRMS FAITH In Brown

Despite growing dissent on the Labour back benches, Brown's advisers are confident his position is safe after a succession of cabinet ministers took to the airwaves to swear their loyalty to him. Brown is preparing a package of initiatives aimed at the hard-pressed former Labour voters who either stayed at home last week or defected to the Tories. Conceding defeat, Gordon Brown has said Labor "will recover" after its worst local election results in 40 years, and told the BBC he took the blame. He admitted to some mistakes but said he had the "conviction and ideas" to take the country forward. In his first interview after the results were announced, Brown said it had "not been the best weekend", adding that voters were worried about rising petrol and food prices and utility bills.


Most Labor lawmakers said the party would be foolish to start casting around for a new leader and Brown was preparing a fight back with plans to unveil a new legislative program, possibly as early as next week. Many ministers feel that the whole cabinet should take responsibility for the "big beating" Labour took in the local elections. Foreign Secretary David Miliband, who has been tipped as a future Labour leader, said Brown was "the right man to take us forward into the next general election" and urged the party to pull together. Labor’s deputy leader Harriet Harman said voters did not want Labor to look "inwards to ourselves" and said Brown was "the very best placed person" to lead the country through economic turbulence.

Environment Secretary Hilary Benn said he had supported Brown last year to be party leader because he had believed he was "the right person to lead the party and the country", adding that his view had not changed. He said: "Our job now is to support him; to work together to meet the challenges that lie ahead; He represents the qualities that we need. He thinks deeply, he cares passionately and his record shows that he takes the right decisions," said Mr Benn.

But shadow defence secretary Liam Fox said Brown was "caught in a mental rut" by repeatedly claiming a record of economic stability at a time when families were being hit by rising prices. Shadow business secretary Alan Duncan on Brown’s claim about his “fight back” in the polls said: " if that was a fight-back, Gordon Brown is now in deeper water."



Brown Policies

Brown’s retreat was accompanied by hints of help in other hugely sensitive areas. They included: Giving more detail on how the Government plans to compensate up to 5.3million people hit by the scrapping of the 10p starting rate of tax; Keeping open the prospect of a freeze on fuel duty in the autumn to help motorists; Action to rein in the impact of food price rises with competition law reform aimed at tightening the rules on price fixing, etc.

One should, however, analyse if the domestic as well as foreign polices being pursued by Gordon Brown establishment has also affected the fortunes of Labor party. He has pursued the same old policies of Blair but has suggested a new set of reform on the eve of polls. However, the Brown government was involved in controversy on the poll eve in April 2008 over the decision to scrap the 10p Income Tax Band and he was forced into making concessions. Many ministers reported to have voiced concerns about the abolition of the 10 percent rate last week. Brown remains defiant for now. He said that people who had lost out because of the band being scrapped were compensated by other allowances and people would eventually come round to the idea he was doing the right thing for the economy.
Domestic Policy
In the poll campaign Brown has proposed moving some traditional prime ministerial powers to the realm of Parliament, such as the power to declare war and approve appointments to senior positions. Brown wants Parliament to gain the right to ratify treaties and have more oversight into the intelligence services. He has also proposed moving some powers from Parliament to citizens, including the right to form "citizens' juries During his Labor leadership campaign, Brown proposed some policy initiatives, such as: Health sector reform; end to corruption and Constitutional reform: Brown has not stated whether he proposes a U.S.-style written constitution—something the UK has never had—or a looser bill of rights. He said in a speech when announcing his bid that he wants a “better constitution” that is “clear about the rights and responsibilities of being a citizen in Britain today”.

Brown also plans to set up an all-party convention to look at new powers for Parliament. Brown has said he will give Parliament the final say on whether British troops are sent into action in future; House planning restrictions are likely to be relaxed. Brown said he wants to release more land and ease access to ownership with shared equity schemes. He backed a proposal to build new eco-towns, up to 100,000 new homes in total.
Foreign policy: Europe-USA Unity
Brown set out a vision of foreign policy that embraced closer ties between Europe and America and also the emerging economies. "Now is an opportunity for a historic effort in cooperation, a new dawn in collaborative action between America and Europe ," he said in a speech in Boston . Brown off late has been talking about Euro-USA unity to solve world problems and for collective life. Upon completing his three-day trip to USA in April, Gordon Brown has called for US-European dialogue for closer cooperation. The USA should take the lead in driving closer global cooperation, Brown said on 18 April in a speech that looked beyond the George W. Bush presidency

Blair’s admission of failure in terror war in Iraq meant that there would be a shift in Brown’s foreign policy. Thus Brown made his first overseas trip as Prime Minister not to Washington, but to Berlin Brown remains committed to the Iraq War, but said in a speech in June 2007 that he would "learn the lessons" from the mistakes made in Iraq. There has been widespread speculation on the nature of the UK's relationship with the United States under Brown's government.

Brown's close aide Douglas Alexander was widely reported as both a policy shift and a message to the U.S.: "In the 21st century, strength should be measured on what we can build together…we need to demonstrate by our deeds, words and our actions that we are internationalist, not isolationist, multilateralist, not unilateralist, active and not passive, and driven by core values, consistently applied, not special interests." However Downing Street's spokesman strongly denied the suggestion that Alexander was trying to distance Britain from U.S. foreign policy and show that Britain would not necessarily, in Tony Blair's words, stand "shoulder to shoulder" with George W. Bush over future military interventions.

Brown personally clarified his position; "We will not allow people to separate us from the United States of America in dealing with the common challenges that we face around the world. Brown said that America 's leadership is, and will be, indispensable for UK and all efforts should be made to forge better ties. The speech seemed to look toward the new White House administration that will be ushered in when the Republican president leaves office in January 2009.


That new focus was evident when Brown met the three main candidates for the November presidential election -- Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and Republican John McCain -- before Bush in Washington on April 17. Brown said he wants to see reform of the international institutions to reflect the new world order. His argument is that global problems need global solutions as shown by the credit crunch that has seized financial markets.


Brown always said his interest in Israel and in the Jewish community has been long-standing… Brown said in a letter published March 17, 2008 that the United Kingdom will hold an inquiry into the Iraq war -- but not soon. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown will skip the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics, on August 8, 2008 in Beijing, Brown has been under intense pressure from human rights campaigners to send a message to China, concerning the 2008 Tibetan unrest.

James Brown, a Scot himself, is under growing pressure to support a referendum on Scottish independence after an unexpected volte-face by the Scottish Labor leader Wendy Alexander in which she supported nationalists' demands for a vote on Scotland's independence. Gordon Brown is confident the Scottish people would reject independence from the United Kingdom if the question were put to them in a referendum.

Looking to Future?

The mere promises made by Brown alone were not enough to prevent his ruling Labour Party taking a pounding in local elections on May 1. As predicted before the polls as a turning shock for the ruling Labor party, the outcome is an embarrassment for Brown, who took over as prime minister from Tony Blair in June 2007. He now faces an uphill political battle against the Conservatives, if he is to remain in office following nationwide parliamentary elections that is due to be held early 2010.

The New Labor government led by Tony Blair came to power in 1996 promising a government “whiter than white” got derailed way though and Blair had to step down caught in corruption charges and failures in terror war in Iraq. With still two years to go before national elections, Labor recorded its worst results in 40 years in local polls. The question now is whether the rout was just mid-term blues from which Labour can recover before the next general election, due by mid-2010 at the latest, or whether the tide has finally turned towards the Conservatives.

The Conservative success in the elections would put the opposition party and their leader David Cameron under renewed pressure to prove they can lead the country after more than a decade in the wilderness. So far, senior Labor lawmakers have rallied behind Prime Minister Brown, saying the former finance minister is the man to lead Britain through an economic downturn — but voters are unconvinced. Rising food and fuel costs, a fall in house prices in a country where two-thirds of the population own their own home, and a tax move by Brown that left five million of Britain’s poorest households worse off have all soured the public mood.

The image US-Europe unity has come handy for Brown to hide the economic failures of his government. On the eve of UK local polls, Brown was probably trying to divert the domestic problems especially in economy. The US economic crisis has affected the world, including Britain. The English economy is no longer the former finance minister's trump card -- it is slowing and Britons are becoming increasingly worried about the prospect of a housing market crash as mortgage lending dries up in the face of a global credit crunch. Brown called in senior bank executives this week to discuss the drying up of funds in credit markets and a new plan to kick-start lending is expected next week. Brown is counting on the economy picking up next year in time for a national election that must take place by 2010.

The Treasury will now be under pressure to come up with new measures to restore Labor's credibility on the economy -- hard won over the past 10 years when Brown was finance minister but squandered in recent months after a mistake over tax rates. But the gloomy economic news continued to roll in. British house prices suffered their biggest annual fall in 15 years in April. If the economic crisis continues through 2010, Brown's dead in the water," MORI pollster Robert Worcester told Reuters.

Of course, Gordon Brown is now down and he has accepted the fate, but he is not out, not only because his colleagues still support him vehemently, but more than he has revised many of his domestic policies. He seems to be clear about his destiny. Astrological predictions in December 2007 showed that Brown was heading for troubles ahead but from July 2008 for the next two years his life would be steady. Policies pursued by Brown do not seem to have made any significant impact on the poll verdict and, by all probability, there has been downward slide in the fortunes of Labor politics otherwise both at home and abroad. From this it follows that unless Premier Gordon Brown takes firm steps to improve economy and change UK’ part of terror war strategy, among other measures, the situation in 1910 would not be totally different form what is today.