Former USSR Understanding the Orange Revolution: Ukraine’s Democratization in the Russian Mirror
Dr. Andreas Umland - 11/20/2009
On November 21st, 2009, Ukrainian democrats will be celebrating the fifth anniversary of the start of demonstrations in Kyiv which led to larger political developments that came to reshape our understanding of post-Soviet politics. During the last five years, the 2004 events in Ukraine known as the Orange Revolution have become important reference points in the international study of democratic transition and consolidation. The Orange Revolution is certainly the major event in the study of current Ukrainian history. [1] Whatever happens to Ukraine in the future, [2] it seems to be destined to become a “crucial case” within comparative research into post-communist politics. [3] Fascist Tendencies in Russias Political Establishment
Dr. Andreas Umland - 8/27/2009
Aleksandr Dugin, a prominent advocate of fascist and anti-Western views, has risen from a fringe ideologue to penetrate into Russian governmental offices, mass media, civil society and academia. Prominent members of Russian society are affiliated with his International Eurasian Movement. Among Dugins most important collaborators are electronic and print media commentator Mikhail Leontev and the legendary TV producer and PR specialist Ivan Demidov. If Dugins views become more widely accepted, a new Cold War between Russia and the West will be likely, during the coming years. Europes Share in the Ukrainian Malaise
Dr. Andreas Umland - 8/20/2009
Much can be heard from Western visitors of Ukraine or observers analyzing the post-Soviet region that Kyiv politics today is a mess. Hardly anybody (least of all, Ukrainians themselves) will disagree. Even lowbrow EU citizens may come up with an opinion on current Ukrainian affairs, and criticize the ensuing political chaos, in Kyiv. Sometimes, Western ignorance mixes with European arrogance to re-produce stereotypes about Ukraine eerily similar to the way in which former KGB officers in Moscow would like to portray Europes largest new democracy. Playing Nice with Russia Has Failed
Prof. Peter Morici - 7/27/2009
Russias invasion of Georgia should compel the United States and Europe to alter their policies of economic engagement to promote democracy. Restart for U.S.-Russian Relations?
Prof. Peter Morici - 7/27/2009
This week, President Obama is putting into action a new foreign and security policy toward Russia--one based on a realistic expression of U.S. goals and interests and a realistic assessment of Russia's interests, even if Prime Minister Vladimir Putin does not recognize all of them. Averting a Post-Orange Disaster: Constitutional Reforms and Political Stability in Ukraine
Dr. Andreas Umland - 7/27/2009
After several years of impressive economic growth and encouraging political change, Ukraine has recently entered troubled waters. The democracies west of Ukraine are institutionally consolidated and internationally embedded enough to circumscribe the political repercussions of their so far relatively mild economic contractions. While being hit almost as hard as Ukraine by the world financial crisis, Russia has managed to build considerable financial reserves thanks to the enormous cash inflow into her state budget during the years of rocketing energy prices, allowing her to soften the social repercussions of the economic downturn. Russia's Foreign and Security Goals
Christian Wipperfuerth - 5/25/2009
1. Stability: Protection of the Territorial Integrity
For the elites and the population the unexpected dissolution of the USSR is a permanent reminder of their country's potential vulnerability. Russians also even tend to draw comparisons between the 1990s and the Smuta in the 17th century, when the state broke down and millions died. The fear of a break down is not wholly unfounded, because a traditionally centralized multi-ethnic power with a weak society like Russia is not as flexible as others to cope with shocks. Will There Be a Second Crimean War?
Dr. Andreas Umland - 5/13/2009
The August 2008 war in the Caucasus was a shock to Russian-Western relations. The Wests timid reaction to the five-day conflict and to the de facto annexation of two Georgian provinces, by Russia, do not bode well for the future of European security. While the recent renewal of friendly relations between Moscow and Washington as well as current rapprochement between President Dmitry Medvedev and the liberal Russian intelligentsia give reason for hope, the major source for instability in northern Eurasia remains in place. Absolute power corrupts absolutely: Azerbaijan lifts term limits
Farid Guliyev, Ph.D. candidate - 5/4/2009
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. This famous dictum of Baron Acton sounds so true today in the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. Here the referendum this Wednesday (March 18) lifted term limits on the presidency granting approval to President Ilham Aliyev to serve as many times as he wishes after his second term finishes in 2013. The poll approved more than 40 amendments to the constitution removing some of the restraints on the presidency. Ilham Aliyev, 47, succeeded his ailing father Heydar Aliyev in the presidential election in 2003 and voted to continue in office for the second five-year term in October 2008. Are We Witnessing the Beginning of a New Russian Thaw
Dr. Andreas Umland - 2/23/2009
When Vladimir Putin nominated Dmitry Medvedev for becoming Putin's successor as President of the Russian Federation on December 10, 2008, Western observers reacted with relief. Medvedev was the best possible candidate, in Putin's entourage, and the West's preferred choice as a future partner in negotiations – at least, given the alternatives to Medvedev, in the Russian leadership. At the same time, most pundits, in both Russia and the West, were sceptical concerning not only the actual prerogatives which Russia's third president would have, with Putin being Prime-Minister "under" Medvedev. M... Gas Pipelines and the Russian-Ukrainian Power Balance
Dr. Andreas Umland - 1/17/2009
It appears that, in the future, European Union monitors will, at the Russian-Ukrainian border, observe the flow of Russian gas to Europe. The EU is thus helping to ease Russian-Ukrainian confrontation. Or is it? Ukraine's Window of Opportunity
Dr. Andreas Umland - 12/29/2008
As president Victor Yushchenko's rating plummets further there is a chance that Kiev's political elite may agree to form a parliamentary republic. Russia weary of NATOs eastward expansion
Abid Mustafa - 11/12/2008
Ever since America gained Georgia via the Rose Revolution in 2003, and then cemented her influence in parts of Ukraine through the Orange Revolution in 2004, Russias antagonism towards American influence in the post-soviet space has grown immensely. The conflagration between the two erstwhile adversaries is greatest over NATOs attempts to include Georgia and Ukraine. America is eager to admit both countries into NATO and extend its security umbrella to encompass the highly vulnerable energy transit routes to the West from the Caspian Sea, and secure strategic locations in Russias near abro... Medvedev announcing democratic reforms
Dr. Andreas Umland - 11/12/2008
As the world watched how the Americans elected their first black president, it has been largely ignored that, across the ocean, another historic event was taking place simultaneously in Moscow. On November 5th, 2008, Dmitry Medvedev gave his first presidential address to the Federal Assembly, i.e. the two houses of Russian parliament. In his speech, Medvedev presented to the Russian lawmakers an action plan the implementation of which could usher in a return to the policy of democratic reforms started by Mikhail Gorbachev in the late 1980s, and continued by Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s. Moscows Miscalculated Show of Strength
Dr. Andreas Umland - 9/29/2008
In Western comments, the Russian armys invasion of Georgia is portrayed as a manifestation of revisionist expansionism. Kremlin-controlled mass media, in contrast, presents Russias intervention in the Southern Caucasus as a humanitarian action saving a national minority from genocide as well as the lives and dignity of Russian citizens abroad. After what the Russian army had done to Chechnya in the 1990s, Moscows noise on Georgia is not only hyperbolic and -critical. The Russian leadership helped also to provoke the Georgian attack and had been seemingly waiting or even preparing for it... The Trouble with Russia
Prof. Barry Rubin - 9/29/2008
The return of Russian power in the Middle East, next to Iran's nuclear weapons' campaign, is the region's most important new issue. While far less threatening than the Soviet bloc's Cold War backing for radical Arab states, this development poses some major problems for U.S. leaders, Israeli interests, and Middle East politics. Russia is Selling Hezbollah surface-to-air and anti-tank missiles
Elias Bejjani - 8/29/2008
Hezbollah's Leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah warned that his terrorist armed militia is now much, much, stronger than before the devastating war that took place in 2006 between his militia and Israel. He rhetorically and pompously alleged that his militia would destroy Israel if its army wages any attacks against Lebanon. A Shield of a Passport: Moscow Uses Russian Citizenship as a Tool for Recollecting the Empire's Lands
Dr. Andreas Umland - 8/26/2008
One of the main justifications for Russias recent invasion of Georgia was that it had to protect its citizens from what Moscows leaders chose to call genocide by the Georgian army in South Ossetia. The reasons behind Russias embrace of this particular argument seems to be that the protection of ones own citizens has been a common rationalization for military action abroad by many countries, including major Western powers. Russia thus apparently follows internationally-accepted modes of behavior: governments have to protect their citizens, using military means if necessary. Playing Nice With Russia Failed
Prof. Peter Morici - 8/26/2008
Russias invasion of Georgia should compel the United States and Europe to alter their policies of economic engagement to promote democracy. After the Cold War, the United States and Europe sought to integrate Russia, China and their satellites into the western market economy. Policymakers believed this would encourage democracy, human rights and a peaceful demeanor toward their neighbors. Georgian Lessons for Small Nations
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 8/18/2008
Small nations can learn seven important lessons from Russia's invasion of Georgia: The War Between Russia and Georgia
Prof. John Press - 8/13/2008
During this week of international Olympic harmony-through-competition, Russia has attacked Georgia! Oh the irony!! As war is hell, it is a terrible thing. But perhaps this timing can help to wake us from our multicultural slumber. Putin's Malkin Gambit
David Storobin, Esq. - 7/17/2008
Early in 2008, it was announced that the Russian Super League (RSL) would be expanded with the investment of the government-run $75 billion behemoth Gazprom oil and gas company - Russias new President Dmitry Medvedev was until recently the chairman of its Board of Directors - to create the Continental Hockey League (known as the KHL), with intention of becoming the European competitor to the National Hockey League. The RSL was already the best league in Europe, but this development is quite different and has real and serious political consequences seeing as the KHL is not merely a hockey venture, but a Russian challenge to Washington. Moscow Diary: Emerging Equations
Abdul Ruff - 6/18/2008
After successfully leading Russia for over 8 years to all-round development and image building and having found his successor in Dmitry Medvedev, Russian leader Vladimir Putin quit presidency and resumed his job as Russia's new Premier in Beliy Dom (White House) overlooking the grand Moscow River flowing very close to the Kremlin the other side. Though Putin had to quit presidency to respect the Constitution stipulating two consecutive terms, Russians know Putin has not taken over a small position in exchange for of Presidency. Immensely popular and at the height of his powers, Putin wants Rus... Will there be power struggle in Russia?
Abdul Ruff - 6/8/2008
After successfully leading Russia for over 8 years to all-round development and image building and having found his successor in Dmitry Medvedev, Russian leader Vladimir Putin quit presidency and resumed his job as Russia's new Premier in Beliy Dom (White House) overlooking the grand Moscow River flowing very close to the Kremlin the other side. Though Putin had to quit presidency to respect the Constitution stipulating two consecutive terms, Russians know Putin has not taken over a small position in exchange for of Presidency. Immensely popular and at the height of his powers, Putin wants Rus... Neo-Eurasianism, the Issue of Russian Fascism, and Post-Soviet Political Discourse
Dr. Andreas Umland - 6/7/2008
The past couple of years witnessed a welcome sensitization of the Russian public towards skinhead attacks and ultra-nationalist propaganda. Nevertheless, Putins administration and the Kremlin-controlled mass media maintained an ambiguous stance regarding xenophobic tendencies in politics and public discourse. While primitive hatred of foreigners and ethnic violence are officially stigmatized, the dissemination of national stereotypes and anti-Americanism, in particular, by government-directed information channels and political pundits continues unabated. For example, the notorious publicist A... Medvedev's Agenda
Abdul Ruff - 5/20/2008
An ordinary person, who once worked on a building site and as a street cleaner to help fund his studies at university, who won 70.23% of the vote in March Dmitry Medvedev, who won 70.23% of the vote in March has assumed power in Russia for 4 years. His ancestors included farm workers, a blacksmith and a hat maker. A lawyer by training, in the 1990s Medvedev was an assistant professor at St Petersburg State University, during which time he became an expert consultant for external affairs team of the city's mayor - Vladimir Putin. In 2000, Medvedev took charge of Vladimir Putin's presidential election campaign and in October 2003 he was appointed Kremlin chief of staff. U.S.-Russia Missile Defense Tensions and Russian Military Resurgence
Lorna Thomas - 5/20/2008
For many in the U.S. and Britain, one of 2007's surprises - or shocks - was the resurgence of Russia as a force to be reckoned with. Buoyed by wealth gained as an oil producer in an oil dependent world, Russia displayed renewed confidence on the world stage. Power Transfer in Russia: A Note
Abdul Ruff - 5/20/2008
Against all predictions in the West and elsewhere about a likely unease, rather crisis, in power transfer in Russia as Putin was quilting Kremlin after over 8 years of his powerful stay, the scene on 07 May at the Kremlin has been smooth and Dimtry Medvedev, has assumed power as the third president of Russian federation since the collapse of the USSR in 1991, as outgoing President Vladimir Putin transferred power, without any hassles what so ever, to his junior deputy Premier and his chosen successor, upon winning landslide victory in March. The grand ceremony was held in the Kremlin's magnifi... Russia-Georgia Tensions over Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence
Abdul Ruff - 5/14/2008
Even as a new president taking over the Kremlin reigns, long-standing tensions between Russia and Georgia over breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in Georgia have flared dangerously recent days with each country accusing the other of provocative actions that risk war. Russia has moved troops and armor into Abkhazia last week to respond to a Georgian military buildup along the unofficial border with the breakaway region of the Caucasus republic. But Georgia has warned of military action, if Russian forces interfere. The Kremlin said the deployment was allowed under a 1994 cease-fire th... Abkhazia and South Ossetia independence: Russia-Georgia Tensions
Abdul Ruff - 5/14/2008
Even as a new president taking over the Kremlin reigns, long-standing tensions between Russia and Georgia over breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions in Georgia have flared dangerously recent days with each country accusing the other of provocative actions that risk war. Russia has moved troops and armor into Abkhazia last week to respond to a Georgian military buildup along the unofficial border with the breakaway region of the Caucasus republic. But Georgia has warned of military action, if Russian forces interfere. The Kremlin said the deployment was allowed under a 1994 cease-fire th... The Rise of Dmitry Medvedev and the Re-Configuration of Post-Soviet Politics
Dr. Andreas Umland - 5/11/2008
On May 7th, 2008, the 42-year-old jurist Dmitry Medvedev was inaugurated as the new President of the Russian Federation. The same day, Medvedev proposed Putin as Russias Prime Minister, and the State Duma duly confirmed the proposal the following day. Whatever these moves may, in the end, entail for the exact redistribution of power in Moscow, they imply that Medvedev will become Russias official leader. Medvedevs rise means that Russia might have a serious chance to embark anew on a course of political liberalization and democratization. It will provide a welcome opportunity for Western go... Armenia says: "Nagorno-Karabakh Independence is Final"
Abdul Ruff - 5/11/2008
The nations seeking and fighting for their independence and freedom from the parent or colonial powers that have annexed them in the past have become order of modern civilization and globalization does promote the positive process of gaining freedom in a meaningful way. While the occupying powers resist the freedom bids by "subordinates", most of the countries support the moves. Many nations have already secured independence and some more are still struggling for freedom. And sooner or later they will also, as natural outcome of the flow of history, achieve their legitimate ambitions. Recently... Tensions over Nagorno-Karabakh Independence
Abdul Ruff - 5/11/2008
The nations seeking and fighting for their independence and freedom from the parent or colonial powers that have annexed them in the past have become order of modern civilization and globalization does promote the positive process of gaining freedom in a meaningful way. While the occupying powers resist the freedom bids by "subordinates", most of the countries support the moves. Many nations have already secured independence and some more are still struggling for freedom. And sooner or later they will also, as natural outcome of the flow of history, achieve their legitimate ambitions. Recently... Gorbachev Number Two: Dmitry Medvedev
Dr. Andreas Umland - 5/3/2008
The majority of Russian and Western observers see the man who will become the new President of the Russian Federation this month as an only relatively liberal figure, if not as a faceless opportunist. Some even think that Medvedev will be a second Putin whose rise means merely more of what we have seen during the last eight years. However, Medvedevs early political biography and most recent statements on such issues as multi-party competition, freedom of the press, or Russias relations to the West point in a different direction. Should the Russian presidential administration come under the l... Russias WTO Ambition and Georgian Role
Abdul Ruff - 5/3/2008
Russia has been at logger heads with many of its former friends that constituted the USSR. Apart from the Central Asian Republics , there is hardly any country of the Former Soviet-Union States (FSUS) that supports Russia in good faith. Byelorussia with which Russia has been trying make a united country is also not showing full interest in the project off late. Supported by the USA and European nations, the European part of FSU sates have even opposed Russian dominance over them. Russia thus used energy diplomacy to contain the resistance form these essentially anti-Russian FSU states. Ukr... Ukraine, NATO, and German Foreign Policy
Dr. Andreas Umland - 4/30/2008
Since the beginning of April, Germany has become a rather less popular country in Ukraines capital Kyiv and Western provinces. Patriotic Ukrainian elites are mostly right in their evaluation of the effects of recent German foreign policies. At the summit in Bucharest in early April, it was not the least Germany's refusal to immediately invite Ukraine to NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) that led to the postponement of the issue to NATOs next large meeting later this year. Armenian people: Pain, faith, & hope
Elias Bejjani - 4/29/2008
On the ninety-third anniversary of the Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Empire government's military forces which took place in 1915 in what is known today as Turkey, we, from the Lebanese Canadian Coordination Council (LCCC), offer our heartily felt condolences to the Armenian people all over the world, share their grief, pain and anguish, as well as their on going cry for justice. Moscow Diary: President Putin Speaking
Abdul Ruff - 4/29/2008
Even as the latest love-affair controversy, reported by the media linking him with a gymnast Alina Kabayeva, Russian president Vladimir Putin is busy streamlining the future course he has to pursue while in the White House, the office of new Russian Prime-Minster on the other-side of the Kremlin across the Moscow (Moskva) river. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's chief spokesman who speaks four languages and has been Putin's voice to the world media since 2000, has been named spokesman for the prime minister and a deputy government chief of staff on 26 April. In activity after the close of business in Mo... Russia-Italy Ties
Abdul Ruff - 4/23/2008
President Vladimir Putin and Italian Prime Minister-elect and the richest man of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, on 18 April 2008 rekindled ties by talking up a possible new bid by Aeroflot for troubled airline Alitalia and hinted that a gas deal between Gazprom and Italy 's Eni involving Libya could be in the pipeline too. Putin was visiting Berlusconi on the island of Sardinia just days after the Italian media mogul's victory in parliamentary elections. Putin arrived on the island 17 April after completing a two-day trip to Libya , where he signed a raft of deals on debt, railways and energy. On energy, Putin hinted that a Gazprom deal with Eni involving Libya could be close. Aspects of the Orange Revolution
Dr. Andreas Umland - 4/20/2008
Ukraines 2004 presidential election was falsified, spurring the Orange Revolution. To many observers, the Orange Revolution was a shock, and the stolen elections a recent development. However, both the election fraud and the effort to topple the government of Leonid Kuchma emerged from political dynamics that had appeared in earlier Ukrainian elections. Censorship of love a la Putin
Iqbal Latif - 4/20/2008
Men are boys and they never really ever grow up when it comes to passion. The message from Putin is clear: Don't mess with my woman; she is no orphan like Lewinsky. Putin and Sarkozy are two gainfully employed powerful men. One gets curious as to find out what they are looking for in a relationship. We know what their partners, Ms. Carla and Ms. Alina look at -- it is the 'power' that emanates and radiates from these two very potent guys. Recently, Sarkozy married a well-known Parisian (Italian heiress) socialite, Carla. I was keen to know why powerful men fall for 'amazing beauties' and socia... The Belonuchkin Case
Dr. Andreas Umland - 4/17/2008
In December 2007, Russian political journalist and researcher Grigory Belonuchkin told a court that the results of that month's federal parliamentary elections in two electoral precincts of his home town Dolgoprudnyi near Moscow were tainted. Working as an official observer during the voting for the Russian State Duma, Belonuchkin collected documentation of electoral fraud in favor of Vladimir Putin's party United Russia. In early April 2008, Belonuchkin was beaten so severely that he had to be hospitalized. One fears that Belonuchkin is a case small enough for the Kremlin to let the Dolgoprudnyi gang make the journalist an example for others who may have illusions similar to Belonuchkins. Russian Proposal for Mideast Summit
Abdul Ruff - 4/16/2008
This write-up concentrates on the statements made by Russian leaders and statesmen on the need for a summit brokered by the Kremlin, in addition to the opinions expressed by Palestinian and Israeli leaders. Post-Soviet Russian Anti-Americanism and the Post-War German Experience
Dr. Andreas Umland - 4/14/2008
Since the publication of Alexander Yanovs 1995 book After Yeltsin: Weimar Russia (Moscow: KRUK; New York: Slovo-Word), a number of Yanovs predictions for the post-Yeltsin period have come true. Above all, during the last years, sections of the Russian elite have adopted a paranoid vision of the outside, above all Western, world which, in the 1990s, had been a minority view held by the extreme right and paleocommunists. Whether this makes Yanovs sweeping equation of developments in post-Soviet Russia and inter-war Germany justified or not: It remains a fact that, in spite of relative polit... Will the Third Rome (Russia) Fall to Islam?
Fjordman - 4/3/2008
I recently read the book The Reformation by Owen Chadwick, about the Protestant Reformation and the situation in 15th and 16th century Europe. It is fascinating to read about Western Europe during a period when it was genuinely dynamic, not the anemic and self-loathing continent it is now. But still, I was also struck by how many similarities there are between the situation then and now. This was also during a period of Muslim aggression, as the Turks made inroads into the Balkans and Central Europe, eventually threatening even Western Europe.
Ironically, this period was also whe... Is Putins Russia really fascist? A response to Alexander Motyl
Dr. Andreas Umland - 3/26/2008
In his articles Is Putins Russia fascist? published on the site of The National Interest Online on December 3, 2007 (http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=16258) and Surviving Russias drift to fascism published in the Kyiv Post, January 17, 2008 (http://www.kyivpost.com/op... Moscows New Chief Ideologist: Ivan Demidov
Dr. Andreas Umland - 3/25/2008
Recent attention by Russian and Western commentators was focused on the presidential elections of March 2nd, 2008, and the personality of Dmitry Medvedev. Therefore, the appointment of 44-year old Ivan Demidov as Head of the Ideological Directorate of the Political Department of United Russias Central Executive Committee in late February 2008 went largely unnoticed. Demidov is a colorful Russian politician who became a cult figure among the young in the 1990s when he was a popular moderator and producer of youth-related programs for various TV stations. His new post as official chief ideologi... Post-Soviet Nationalism and Russia's Future
Dr. Andreas Umland - 3/6/2008
The roots of Russias currently rising nationalism are threefold: pre-Soviet, Soviet and post-Soviet. The idea of Moscow as the Third Rome, i.e. of a special Russian mission in world history, goes back several centuries. Russian nationalism had been contrary to what many in the West believed an important element of Soviet ideology ever since the 1930s. Like in the early 19th century when Moscows so-called Slavophiles applied German nativist thought to Russian conditions, ideas of various Russian nationalist movements today are often imported from the West. Russia's Psycho-war against India
Monotapash Mukherjee - 3/3/2008
Riding on oil, gas and arms export Russia is rising like a phoenix and is trying to build a world order parallel to the one conceived by the USA. In doing so, it has unleashed an intense, carefully calculated and calibrated psycho-war especially against the USA and India. Despite the Russian P.M. Viktor Zubkov's two day visit to India which he described as a 'trusted friend' of Russia, the psycho-war is still on. Let us briefly examine how all these happened, what the reflexes are, why the two need each other and what India should do to progress towards peace and prosperity as an independent and sovereign state. ICJ and Armenian Genocide dispute
Cenap Cakmak, Ph.D. - 2/28/2008
Newspapers have reported that Turkey readies to take the longstanding Armenian Genocide dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN-affiliated judicial institution authorized to deal with interstate disagreements. In consideration of the growing problem in regards to the recognition of the so-called Armenian genocide by a number of parliaments allegedly committed by Turkish authorities in early 1900s, Turkey has decided to prove in reliance on a global courts judgment that the events may not be viewed as repercussions of the deliberative acts to destroy or eliminate a certain ethnic or religious group in part or as a whole. Russia's Nuclear Declaration: A Defense, Not An Attack
David Storobin, Esq. - 1/22/2008
"We have no plans to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, the use of nuclear weapons."
-Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky. This announcement was largely ignored by the American media as it debated whats more important for the next President: the shape of the candidates genitals or the color. In more wonkish corners, the statement drew concerns and talk of a new Cold War. And yet, Moscow is... Azerbaijan: In Search Of Multiple Identities
Prof. Alireza Asgharzadeh - 12/11/2007
This article focuses on emerging Azerbaijani identity and its competing versions in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Iran, and in the diaspora. The Republic of Azerbaijan has over eight million people compared with more than 20 million Azeris in Iran. The two groups have ethnic, linguistic, and historical ties but also different experiences, giving them both a common identity contradicted by other factors. Russia and Qatar
Prof. Mark N. Katz - 12/3/2007
From 2004 to 2007, relations between Russia and Qatar went from extremely poor to remarkably cooperative. How did this happen? Considering that Russia and Qatar are both among the world's three largest producers of natural gas (the third being Iran), what does this Russian-Qatari rapprochement portend? Armenia Becomes The Focus of Attention in the Caucasus
Gohar Gevorgian - 11/11/2007
Director of NAA (National Academy of Armenia) Institute of Oriental Studies Ruben Safrastian was the guest of "Hayatsk" club on Wednesday. He touched upon the three factors in the region, mentioning that the Armenian factor has gained a significant role in the world and especially Turkish policy. "In this case, Armenia is in the focus of attention in the region", he added. Russia Opens the Pacific Front In Indonesia
David J. Jonsson - 10/9/2007
As Sun Tsu said: Whoever occupies the battleground first and awaits the enemy will be at ease; whoever occupies the battleground afterward and must race to the conflict will be fatigued. Thus one who excels at warfare compels men and is not compelled by other men. Putin's Dictatorial Streak
Angelique van Engelen - 10/7/2007
The Russian President Vladimir Putin isnt anywhere near as funny as his predecessor Boris Yeltsin, yet his actions are far more outrageous. Only a few days ago, Putin shocked both domestic onlookers and the international community by stating his plans to hold onto power at the end of an address of the countrys United Russia party. Even the most informed of analysts appeared to be mesmerized by the announcement. Putins Russian Roulette
Angelique van Engelen - 10/4/2007
Vladimir Putin is the quiet sort. But hes deep. Hes solved the puzzle that everybody expected him to solve, announcing how hes planning to hold on to the power hes accrued during his two term tenancy as Russias President. Tahrir in Central Asia: How America Misreads Islamist Threats
Prof. Matthew Crosston - 9/21/2007
The following article examines and analyzes the philosophical underpinnings of the Hizb ut-Tahrir in Central Asia. It does so to highlight a larger, more important theoretical and policy point: The United States, in its global war against terror, has improperly defined what constitutes a legitimate Islamist threat. As a result, it mislabels many Islamist groups that do constitute a real security threat to the United States and to democratic regimes in general. Russia's Spetsnaz and Islamic Terrorism
Ryan Mauro - 9/11/2007
There is no doubt that the Soviet Union played a tremendous role in the expansion and evolution of Islamic terrorism. Many of the people responsible for the policy of promoting fundamentalist miliancy still hold key positions in Russia. People can accept the fact that there are "anti-Bush" cliques inside the CIA and State Department, and the fact that there are "pro-Bin Laden" cliques in the Pakistani military ISI. Yet, for some strange reason, they cannot accept the fact that there are still "pro-Marxist" cliques inside Russia. I believe that the Russian Mafia operates in unison with these "rogue" elements, almost as a separate intelligence directorate. Russian weapons in the Middle East
Natalya Hmelik - 9/1/2007
The last three days of July the leader of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas spent in Moscow . Actually, Mr. Abbas is the leader of the West Bank, with the Gaza Strip under control of Hamas radical movement, a rival of his Fatah party. But many in the world, including in the United States, Europe and even Israel, have recognized him as the only legitimate Palestinian leader and a great peace-lover and rushed to help him. Russian President Vladimir Putin also offered Mr. Abbas support in a form of 50 armored personnel vehicles for his security forces and an announcement that Russia had dow... Russia: Bright Present, Dark Future?
Dieter Farwick - 8/11/2007
Summer time 2007 in Moscow and St.Peterburg is an exciting highlight for visitors. Bombing Georgia - Is Russia To Blame?
Angelique van Engelen - 8/9/2007
Relations between Russia and Georgia took a turn for the worse when a bomb landed just outside the Georgian village Sjavsjvebi, 60 km North West of the capitol Tblisi, earlier this week. The international community has devoted modest attention to the incident but in the absence of any clarity on the issue there has been no condemnation of sorts of Russia, who the Georgians say is the culprit. The Russian government denies any wrongdoing but the Georgians believe two Russian SU-24 bombers dropped the device, which luckily failed to detonate. The bomb weighed nearly a tonne and if it had exploded, the disaster would have been vast. Russia-UKs Political Consensus Is In Recession
Bhuwan Thapaliya - 7/31/2007
Majority of the diplomats now agree on something. Practically all of them now say that the Russia-UKs political consensus is in recession. Where they do not agree is over how deep and how long the political recession will be, and how robust the recovery, if it is to happen at all. Russia and the United Kingdom are playing a diplomatic see-saw. Last few weeks were a gift to critics of Russia and the United Kingdom s foreign policy. It all started with UK expelling four Russian diplomats following Moscows refusal to extradite the main suspect(Andrei Lugovoi, ex-KGB agent), in the murder of f... Booming Russia and 'Regained' Prosperity For Russia
Bhuwan Thapaliya - 7/4/2007
The result was not unexpected, but it was still spectacular. Russian economy once reassuringly unpredictable is becoming more and more stable. Inflation is low, the current account is in surplus, the financial system looks rigid, and the public finances are sound and solid. Russian economy is rising and many economists expect it to rise further. Collapse of the USSR - Figurative Meaning
Dimitri Kolb - 5/29/2007
There are different explanations of the sudden collapse of what used to be one of two superpoewers of 20th century. Economists blame the weakness of Soviet economy. Americans believe it is due to the Afghan war and Ronald Reagan, who called the USSR the "Evil Empire". Russians blame Mikhail Gorbachev. Pro-Axis Russians: Terrorists ... and Democratic Capitalists
David Storobin, Esq. - 5/9/2007
May 9 is a major holiday in Russia - Victory Day, celebrated the day after Nazi Germany surrendered. Recently, Estonia decided to take down a monument to Russian WWII soldiers, angering Moscow, which called Estonians Nazi-sympathizers because many Baltic people joined the invading German forces. And yet, thousands of Russians also fought in the pro-German Russian Liberation Army (ROA), Russian People's Liberation Army (RONA) and the 29th Russian Waffen SS division. Additionally, there was the 14th Waffen SS Division made up of Ukrainians, but it will not be discussed in this article. The Grand Chess MastersThe Bear and the Dragon
David J. Jonsson - 1/5/2007
While the Iraq crisis continues, the strategy of the Grand Chess Master Russia the bear and China the dragon along with their pawns the Leftists, Marxists and Islamists continue to develop and put in place their strategy for the ultimate goal of world domination. General John Abizaid, the top US commander in the Middle East and John McCain argue about toop strengths. Many Democrats, including Carl Levin, who will become chairman of the Senate armed services committee in January, argue that the US needs to pressure the Iraqis by announcing a timetable to start withdrawing troops within four to ... The Enrons of Russia
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 1/4/2007
Hermitage Capital Management, an international investment firm owned by HSBC London, is suing PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers), the biggest among the big four accounting firms (Andersen, the fifth, is being cannibalized by its competitors). Democracy And Development - A Geopolitical Instrument In Post-Soviet Space
Todor Kondakov, Ph.D. - 8/25/2006
The development of Russian-American relations has always been in the center of analysts' attention. In this connection, the statements on certain tensions between Washington and Moscow as well as on a potential change in the Russian geopolitical vector from West-bound to East-bound direction cannot but raise significant interest. How Russia Deals With NGOs
Liliana N. Proskuryakova - 8/5/2006
President Vladimir Putin recognizes that nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are useful tools for shaping global and national policy and also for criticizing other world leaders. The second article in this two-part series examines Putins two-pronged approach in handling NGOs, a strategy on display during the recent G-8 summit in St. Petersburg: While keeping many Russian-based NGOs and opposition parties under tight security, Putin hosted representatives of international NGOs at his residence and acted as the voice of the Civil G-8 at the meeting of world leaders. Thus, the president def... Energy geopolicy of the Ukraine
Todor Kondakov, Ph.D. - 8/1/2006
It is a well-known fact that the present authorities in the Ukraine consider the energy independency of the country from Russia for the topmost national priority. Over 90% of the deliveries of Russian natural gas for Europe go via this country and Belarus. But if Russian energy companies can reach agreements with Belarus, which is considered as a solid ally of Moscow's, the Ukraine has become a real nightmare for Kremlin after the victory of the "orange revolution". Furthermore, this does not concern the mere transit of energy raw materials for Europe - a much greater challenge is posed by the... Russia's Role in a Brave, New World
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 8/1/2006
This article was originally written in May 1999. How little has changed! Replace Yeltsin with Putin and the text, regrettably, is utterly applicable - even more so than when it was written. A president (Yeltsin) almost impeached. An important politician sacked due to incompetence. Business tycoons under investigation. The USA? No, this is the new, post-communist, Russia. Many firsts, meagre experience, numerous blunders. Is it democracy in action? No, it is simply autocracy exposed. The same machinations went on in Ivan the Terrible's court, the same conspiracies enshrouded Peter the Great's cabin, the same conflicts besieged Stalin. Ask Khruschev. Interview with Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. on the Caucasus, Russia and Turkey
GP Interviews - 7/3/2006
Q: The statement of Matthew Bryza, OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair for settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict, caused numerous comments. What do you think on the occasion? Ukraine: Challenges of Sovereignty
Teymur Huseyinov - 3/27/2006
In the March 26 parliamentary elections in Ukraine - a country that is a bridge between Russia and the EU - the voters will, once again, have to assess whether the direction where the country is headed for satisfies them. This time around opinion polls favor Viktor Yanukovich, the ex-Prime Minister and Yuschenko rival in the presidential elections of December 2004, followed by the sensational Orange Revolution that brought the latter to power. The reasons for this are manifold ranging from lack of political will on the side of the pro-Western President Yuschenko to soaring inflation and plummeting economic performance. Oil: Recent Trends in Caspian Basin Energy Complex
Teymur Huseyinov - 3/7/2006
While Russias oil companies fuelled by the global surge in prices are pumping and exporting crude at full steam, its southern neighbors from Central Asia are concentrating their efforts in downstream sector, that is, development, production and marketing of petroleum products. The long-term strategic task is to gain a solid foothold in Russian and European energy markets. Ukraine and the Processing of Export Zones
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 1/22/2006
Ukrainian President, Leonid Kuchma, told, in Fenruary 2003, an assembly of senior customs service officials that "it is necessary to put an end to (Ukraine's 11 free economic and 9 priority) zones (and) liquidate them completely. (They) have become semi-criminal zones, and this refers not only to the Donetsk zone. You pull the meat that Europe doesn't want to eat into these zones and sell it there without [paying] taxes". Russian Arms Trade: A New Threat
Natalya Hmelik - 12/12/2005
The Soviet Union was always preparing for war, so it's no wonder that the defense industry was the best funded and the most advanced sector. The Soviets annually transferred $20bn worth of weapons to other countries, but earned only $3m-$5m. The rest was so-called "political export" a kind of donations to ideologically friendly regimes or gifts to militants making troubles to unfriendly ones. After the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia embraced the market, some expected the defense industry to bring enormous profits. That never happened. Former brothers in arms didn't line up with new orders... Space Industry in Russia
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 12/8/2005
The recent (December 2005) spate of news about Russia's space program was decidedly mixed. According to Space News, the 17-country European Space Agency (ESA) declined to participate in Russia's $60 million, two-year Clipper manned and winged space vehicle program, a touted alternative to NASA's Crew Exploration Vehicle. Russia's Idled Spies
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 11/15/2005
On November 11, 2002, Sweden expelled two Russian diplomats for spying on radar and missile guidance technologies for the JAS 39 British-Swedish Gripen fighter jet developed by Telefon AB LM Ericsson, the telecommunications multinational. The Russians threatened to reciprocate. Five current and former employees of the corporate giant are being investigated. Ironically, the first foreign buyer of the aircraft may well be Poland, a former Soviet satellite state and a current European Union candidate. Transnistria and Tensions in Southeastern Europe
Manuela Paraipan - 11/11/2005
The Transnistrian Republic recently celebrated 15 years since it declared itself as a separate entity of Moldova. The international community often calls it "the Russian enclave". The enclave has today all the attributes of a semi functional, yet unrecognized state. It has its own Constitution, Parliament called the Supreme Soviet, army, currency, flag, etc. On the socio-economical level the state is the one in control of everything starting from education, mass media, to the financial sector. Despite the tensions between Chisinau and Tyraspol, Transnistria maintains relations with Moldova on political, social and economical levels. Russia's Vodka Wars
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 11/4/2005
Vodka is a crucial component in Russian life. And in Russian death. Alcohol-related accidents and cardiac arrests have already decimated Russian life expectancy by well over a decade during the last decade alone. Vodka is also big business. The brand "Stolichnaya" sells $2 billion a year worldwide. Hence the interminable and inordinately bitter battle between the Russian ministry of agriculture and SPI Spirits. The latter, still partly owned by the state, is the on and off owner of the haloed brand "Stolichnaya", James Bond's favorite. Transport And Energy Communications In Caucasus and Black Sea
Todor Kondakov, Ph.D. - 10/25/2005
It is a well-known fact that during the course of two centuries, Russia has been putting a lot of effort in enforcing its positions in the Black Sea and Caucasus regions, as well as in Central Asia. As a result of the series of wars between Russia and Turkey, the Caucasian war and the Turkistan marches, which ended with the inclusion of Khiva and Bukhara into the empire, this task seemed accomplished. Key element in the Russian domination in the above regions has always been the control over strategic communications between Europe and Asia. Energy dialogue between Russia and the US
Dr. Alexandar Todorev - 10/9/2005
On a number of occasions the Russian President Putin has stated that the active involvement of his country into international and regional integration processes is one of the key instruments for modernization of national economy. This can be illustrated by the dialogue on energy issues between Russia and the US, which was activated in the last two years. In actual fact, the stability and predictability of world energy will depend largely upon the ability of diplomatic efforts on energy of both countries to find the sensible balance between various interests on global, regional and bilateral level. Ukraine Government Difficulties Make Moscow Happy
Angelique van Engelen - 9/28/2005
Ukraine's faltering Orange Revolution is seen by analysts as something that was hardly avoidable. Many Eastern European countries went through a number of rapid successions in leadership before they somewhat stabilized. But given the EU's reduced appetite for new members any time soon, will this lead to greater chances for Moscow to embark on a renewed struggle for control over its neigbour? Lysenko and Stalin's Genetics
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 9/22/2005
Trofim Denisovich Lysenko (1898-1976) was an agronomist. During the reign of Lenin and Stalin years in the Soviet Union, he became the chief proponent of the work of the self-taught plant breeder Ivan Vladimirovich Michurin (1855-1935) and his brand of Lamarckism - a pre-Darwinian theory of evolution of the species proposed in the French scientist Jean-Baptiste Lamarck (1744-1829). He was appointed as the president (1938-56) of the Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences and the director (1940-65) of the Institute of Genetics, USSR Academy of Sciences. The leadership of the USSR believed his promises to deliver rapid increases in crop yields. The USSR That Could Have been - Lenin's New Economic Policy
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 9/19/2005
Mikhail Gorbachev (1931- ) was not the first to introduce Perestroika - the economic liberalization of the communist system along capitalistic lines. During the Russian civil war (1918-1922) the Bolsheviks implemented what they called "War Communism" (1917-1921), the militarization of the economy. Between 1916 and 1920, industrial output plunged by more than four fifths. Grain harvests in both 1920 and 1921 disastrously dwindled, leading to widespread famine, claiming five million lives. A series of rebellions of sailors broke out, most famously in the Krohnstadt naval base. Transnistria And Influence on Former Soviet Republics by Russia and the West
Manuela Paraipan - 9/13/2005
The Transnistrian Republic recently celebrated 15 years since it declared itself as a separate entity of Moldova. The international community often calls it "the Russian enclave". The enclave has today all the attributes of a semi functional, yet unrecognized state. It has its own Constitution, Parliament called the Supreme Soviet, army, currency, flag, etc. On the socio-economical level the state is the one in control of everything starting from education, mass media, to the financial sector. Despite the tensions between [Moldovan capital] Chisinau and [Transnistrian capital] Tyraspol, Transnistria maintains relations with Moldova on political, social and economical levels. The Truth About Maxim Gorky
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 9/13/2005
Maxim Gorky (1868-1936) is widely considered a Bolshevik author, closely allied with the likes of Lenin and Stalin. But this is far from the truth. The Armenian Genocide
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 9/6/2005
The Armenian massacres in Turkey started in the 19th century and continued well after the Armenian genocide of 1915 in which some 600,000 Armenians perished. The Armenians were also raided by Kurdish tribesmen on a regular basis. An Ottoman military tribunal, convened between 1919-21, even convicted for the crimes members of the administration of the Young Turks, including cabinet ministers. Wanted: An East European Ataturk
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 8/10/2005
In November 2002, Citibank has become the first American bank to open a retail operation in Russia, replete with phone and Internet banking. It offers middle-class Russian clients in Moscow and St. Petersburg both ruble and dollar accounts, overdraft and loan facilities in both currencies, and even debit - though no credit - cards. Murky laws regarding ownership of real estate initially preclude mortgages. Citibank already has some corporate business in Russia with a modest asset portfolio of c. $1 billion. Uzbekistan and America's Future Conflicts
Angelique van Engelen - 7/31/2005
As of next year, Central Asia will have come fully online to Western energy markets, as twin oil and gas pipelines linking the Caspian sea to Turkey will begin to deliver. By this time, the world will likely finally understand that US foreign policy, known to be energy focused, is intent on more than just bringing Iraq to its knees. This weekend's decision by the leadership of Uzbekizstan, just hours ahead of a key meeting with US officials, to ask US forces to leave its Karsy Khanabad airbase -dubbed K2- might be a turning point however. Rasputin in Transition: Governments In New Democracies
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 7/31/2005
The mad glint in his eyes is likely to be nothing more ominous than maladjusted contact lenses. If not clean shaven, he is likely to sport nothing wilder than a goatee. More likely an atheist than a priest, this mutation of the ageless confidence artist is nonetheless the direct spiritual descendent of Rasputin, the raving maniac who governed Russia until his own execution by Russian noblemen and patriots. Chechnya's Troubles Spill Into Dagestan
Angelique van Engelen - 7/22/2005
Russia is intensifying efforts to assert the idea of 'managed democracy' that topped the public agenda at the onset of President Vladimir Putin's rule a decade ago. The many questions that arose at the time regarding the future of the Soviet Union have by far not been answered. But one thing is clear; inactivity is the ultimate in destruction. The Rise and Fall of Chechen Independence Movement
David Storobin, Esq. - 7/18/2005
Brought to their knees after years of war, Chechens have temporarily accepted Russian rule. Corrupt elections and referendum created impression of acceptance of Moscow and surrender of further demands for independence, yet nobody - including the press secretary of the pro-Moscow Chechen President - believes that is the true will of the Chechen people. The Chechen attempt to achieve independence is not over. Nationalists are still convinced about the righteousness of their cause and are unwilling to submit to Moscow. Islamists have engaged in scores of anti-Russian terrorist acts and have align... Russia and Turkey in South Caucasus: A Geostrategic Armistice
Prof. Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. - 6/26/2005
Two meetings of the Russian president V. Putin and Turkish Prime Minister R.T. Erdogan, held in the end of the last year and in the beginning of this year, as well as the wide spectrum of problems discussed and contents of the signed documents, marked the start of the a new phase in the Russian-Turkish relations. Experts spoke about that start in several recent years, and this phase can be characterized as the starting period of the real strategic process. The Russian Devolution -Center and Regions in Putin's Russia
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 6/23/2005
A centerpiece of President's Putin overhaul of Russia is the reversion to the Kremlin of the power to appoint governors, hitherto voted into office. The popularly elected sort - admittedly a motley and venal crew - seem to have provoked his ire as far too independent and, therefore, impudent. Book Review: "The Realm of the Secret Police" by Kuorsalo, Susiluoto and Valkonen
Antero Leitzinger - 6/18/2005
In 1700s, Count Mirabeau said that everywhere in the world states have an army, except in Prussia, where the army has a state. The same can be said about the power of the secret police in Russia of the 1900s. In Russia, the mighty secret police has ruled a mighty empire regardless of the shifts in ideology and external symbols. This is the conclusion of Anne Kuorsalo, Ilmari Susiluoto and Martti Valkonen in their critical assessment on contemporary Russia, which has now grown into a trilogy. The latest book of the three [Finnish Russia experts] especially studies the influence of post-war KGB, and its activities in Finland. Interview with Prof. Safrastyan: "Armenia Must Get Rid Of Its Complex As Russia's Younger Brother"
GP Interviews - 6/17/2005
Prof. Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. is a Professor of International Relations at Acharyan University in Yerevan, Armenia. He's also the Director of the Department of Turkish Studies at Institute of Oriental Studies, Armenian National Academy of Sciences. In the past, he served as a Counselor of the Armenian Embassy in Germany and was the Deputy Director of the Department of Political Analysis for the Office of the President of Armenia. Book Review: "The Political Economy of Post-Soviet Russia" by Vladimir Tikhomirov
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 6/13/2005
"The philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways. The point, however, is to change it."
-Karl Marx I remember the day in August 1998 when Russia ended its transition. As I walked to work, dwarfed by the decaying monumental buildings and potholed spacious avenues, I saw Russians gathering around exchange offices and banks. As opposed to (Western) media images, there was no violence in the air, just the quiet, matter of fact acceptance that is the hallmark of the Russian. Store shelves were stripped bare and for weeks I survived on stale bread and spaghetti. Peasants stre... Arrest of Khodorkovsky: Threat to Russian Democracy and Economy
David Storobin, Esq. - 6/4/2005
On October 25, 2003, Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested at gunpoint on a Siberian airport runway and charged with tax evasion. Less than a week later, on October 31, the Russian government froze shares of Yukos due on tax charges. Given that the arrest took place not long before elections and rumors surfaced about the billionaire's desire to become President in future elections, many of his supporters saw the Kremlin's actions against him as retaliation for support of the opposition, and as suppression of any viable potential future opponents. Several days ago, Khodorkovsky was sentenced to 9 years in jail guaranteeing that he won't run for Russian Presidency during next elections. China's Manifest Destiny: Immigration and Land Claims Against Russia
Frederick Stakelbeck, Jr. - 6/1/2005
Legendary scenes of determined settlers bravely moving west in a journey to fulfill America's "Manifest Destiny" are being quietly resurrected. Only this time, Chinese migrants, not American settlers, are driving west into the cold, forbidding environment of the Russian Far East and Siberia. Russia as a Creditor
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 5/30/2005
Russia is notorious for its casual attitude to the re-payment of its debts. It has defaulted and re-scheduled its obligations more times in the last decade than it has in the preceding century. Yet, Russia is also one of the world's largest creditor nations. It is owed more than $25 billion by Cuba alone and many dozens of additional billions by other failed states. Indeed, the dismal quality of its forlorn portfolio wouldn't shame a Japanese bank. In the 18 months to May 2001, it has received only $40 million in repayments. The Economics Of Facilitating Regime Change in Uzbekistan
Angelique van Engelen - 5/25/2005
There is a growing feeling in the international community that it has been the West's support for Uzbekistan's dictator Islam Karimov that's helped boost this man's legitimacy beyond respect for human life. That the US and the UK are to blame in particular for the violent crackdown on protests in the Uzbekistan town of Andijan in which depending on who you believe between 169 to 1,000 people were killed by government troops. This makes it the bloodiest crackdown in the world since the 1989 Tiananman Square horror if you skip the Sudans Darfur massacres which run up body counts of 500 on a goo... Russia's Energy Sector
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 5/24/2005
The pension fund of the Russian oil giant, Lukoil, a minority shareholder in TV-6 (owned by a discredited and self-exiled Yeltsin-era oligarch, Boris Berezovsky), forced, in February 2002, the closure of this television station on legal grounds. Thus was fired the opening shot in the re-politicization of the lucrative (and economically pivotal) energy sector in Russia. Russia's Yukos Trial Does Not Benefit Its Foreign Investment Climate
Angelique van Engelen - 5/21/2005
The trial of the Chief Executive of Russian oil company Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, has many wondering about the viability of investment projects into Russia. A number of Western companies recently has dropped plans and should Khodorkovsky be jailed for the 10 years people believe he might be sentenced to, the move would be strongly condemned by the US government. International Condemnation of Uzbek Killings
Angelique van Engelen - 5/19/2005
The situation in Uzbekistan is said to be critical in the wake of the crushed riots in Andijan in the Islamic stronghold of the Ferghana valley. Government troops have closed off the town to prevent protestors to travel to the capital Tashkent. Borders with two neighboring countries are also closed. Islam Karimov, the country's leader, is known to be the strictest of the Central Asian republics' leaders and it is unlikely that he will pay heed to comments by the international community to relax his rule. Uzbek Fundamentalism and Government Policies
David Storobin, Esq. - 5/17/2005
In the 19th century, the Russian Empire began to expand, and spread into Central Asia. The "Great Game" period is generally regarded as running from approximately 1813 to the Anglo-Russian Convention of 1907. Following the Bolshevik Revolution of 1917 a second less intensive phase followed. At the start of the 19th century there were some 2000 miles separating British India and the outlying regions of the Tsarist Russia. Much of the land in between was unmapped. [1] Russia's Alliance With America's Enemies
Ryan Mauro - 5/16/2005
From the end of World War Two to the end of the 1980s, the world remained divided between two powers indulging in the power struggle of history. While the world remained on the brink of nuclear war, this conflict came to an end, beginning with the collapse of the Berlin Wall. As the Soviet Union retreated from Eastern Europe, and eventually imploded upon itself, the United States became the sole superpower. Astronomical manpower, budget, and military cuts followed, along with the revival of terrorism in a new fashion deadlier than ever. INTERVIEW: Daniel Zaretsky Explains Central Asian Islamic Fundamentalism and Other Regional Issues
David Storobin, Esq. - 5/13/2005
Daniel Zaretsky is currently Assistant Director of the Center for Languages of the Central Asian Region (CeLCAR) at Indiana University. He has worked twice in Kyrgyzstan and has both an MIA and MBA from Columbia University. Today, he explains the challenges faced by Central Asian Republics. Genocide Factor in Armenia's Foreign Policy
Prof. Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. - 4/30/2005
Among the issues on the Armenian foreign policy agenda, perhaps the problem of the recognition of the fact of the Genocide and its condemnation is in many respects the most significant one. It also has a serious domestic political and all-national meaning (in terms of functioning of the whole Diaspora-Homeland system), as well as an important foreign political resonance. INTERVIEW: Caucasus is No Longer the Source of Discord for Russia and Turkey
GP Interviews - 4/18/2005
Ruben Safrastyan, Ph.D. is a Professor of International Relations at Acharyan University in Yerevan, Armenia. He's also the Director of the Department of Turkish Studies at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences. In the past, he served as a Counselor of the Armenian Embassy in Germany and was the Deputy Director of the Department of Political Analysis for the Office of the President of Armenia. Vladimir Putin: Janus Look
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 4/17/2005
Even the most careful and informed perusal of Western policy papers and official announcements leaves one baffled. What is it the West prefers? Does it plump for an affable though ineffectual and constantly inebriated Yeltsin-style leader or would it rather have a thinly disguised authoritarian like Putin? The dilemma seems to be between anarchic democracy and authoritarian rule of law and order. The former agrees with get rich quick tycoons and bleeding heart liberals - the latter with foreign investors and weapons dealers (often one and the same). In Russia, what is good for business often goes against the grain of old fashioned liberalism. Revolutions in Former Soviet Republics Do More Harm than Good
Angelique van Engelen - 4/16/2005
The recent visit of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Kyrgyzstan highlighted the US' commitment to maintaining its presence in the former Soviet Republics. Aside from Kyrgyzstan, the US is involved in Ukraine and Georgia, both of which saw revolutions prior to the March 24 coup which ousted President Askar Akayev from Kyrgyzstan. There's increasing support for the view that it is the US that is orchestrating these regime changes from behind the scenes in former Soviet Republics. They warn that this might in places incite precisely the Islamic nationalist strife that gave US forces the excuse to park themselves out there. History of Government Provocations in Russia
Antero Leitzinger - 4/8/2005
The use of provocations as casus belli or as legitimisation of violence, pogroms and propaganda against ethnic and religious groups, and disinformation in order to lead the media astray both at home and abroad are not new phenomena in the political arena. They have a long tradition especially in Russia, from the anti-Semitic propaganda that once spread all over Europe to the present-day disinformation concerning the Chechens. The extraordinarily strong position of the secret police in Russian political culture can partly explain this gloomy side of Moscow's policies. This article enlightens the use of these methods against Jews and Muslims throughout history. Unsolvable Conflict: Killing of Chechen Separatist Leader Maskhadov
David Storobin, Esq. - 4/7/2005
Russian authorities are reporting that Aslan Maskhadov, the President of Chechnya in the late 1990's during the period of de facto Chechen independence, has been killed in Tolstoy-Yourt, a town in Chechnya. "The Federal Security forces, while conducting a special operation... killed international terrorist and rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov," army spokesman Ilya Shabalkin told Reuters by telephone. Chechnya War: Economic Cost to Russia
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 4/7/2005
One hundred and eighteen hostages and 50 of their captors died in the heavy handed storming of the theatre occupied by Chechen terrorists three years ago. Then, two years later, hundreds of children and teachers were massacred together with their captors in a school in Beslan. This has been only the latest in a series of escalating costs in a war officially terminated in 1997. On August 22, 2002 alone a helicopter carrying 115 Russian servicemen and unauthorized civilians went down in flames. Kyrgyzstan: Why Tulips Are Not Roses (Or Oranges)
Sean-Paul Kelley - 4/7/2005
To the casual observer recent events in Kyrgyzstan resemble those of Georgia and the Ukraine. But as the euphoric opening moves of revolution pass, a political and geographical split widens between rival Kyrgyz clans. If the factionalization of Kyrgystan's divided polity continues it will destabilize the area and further complicate the tense relations of the region's contending powers. Aleksander Lukashenka of Belarus: Europe's Pariah Strongman
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 4/6/2005
Most of the post-communist countries in transition are ruled either by reformed communists or by authoritarian anti-communists. It is ironic that the West - recently led more by the European Union than by the USA - helps the former to get elected even as it demonizes and vilifies the latter. The "regime change" fad, one must recall, started in the Balkans with Slobodan Milosevic, not in Afghanistan, or Iraq. Aleksander Kwasniewski, a former communist minister and the current president of Poland is feted by the likes of George Bush. Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer and Russia's president, i... The Kleptocracies of the East
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/31/2005
The process of transition from communism to capitalism was largely hijacked either by outright criminals in budding outfits of organized crime - or by pernicious and all-pervasive kleptocracies: politicians and political parties bent on looting the state and suppressing the opposition, sometimes fatally. In the past 16 years, industrial production in the economies in transition tumbled in real terms by more than 60 percent. The monthly salary in the poorer bits equals the daily wage of a skilled German industrial worker, or one seventh the European Union's average. Gross domestic product per c... Where is Russia's Foreign Policy Headed?
Angelique van Engelen - 3/30/2005
Russia's official foreign policy is rather obscure and not unlike many of Russia's policies, most of which are largely carried out on what appears an ad-hoc basis by President Putin himself. Moscow's frequent rows with international organisations of are more or less an indicator of where it is at in its otherwise non-coherent strategy to enter into the international community. In anger over the role played by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukrainian and Georgian elections, Moscow recently threatened to withhold its $180 million membership fee from the organi... Foreign Mercenaries in Chechnya
Aliheydar Rzayev, Ph.D. - 3/30/2005
Closely related to the geopolitical aspects of the Chechen crisis is the issue of foreign interference in the region. It is a well-known fact that from the very onset of his political career Johar Dudaev has been counseled by several representatives of the radical, anti-Russian nationalistic circles from the former Soviet republics in the Trans-Caucasus, the Ukraine and the Baltic regions, who in practice formulated his first program for the building of an independent Chechen state. At the same time, immediately after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan in 1989 and the final fall... Falling Dominoes: Kyrgyz People Overthrow Their Dictator
Ross G. Kaminsky - 3/26/2005
I'm pretty good at geography and even I couldn't show you Kyrgyzstan on a map. Still, the news of a popular uprising against yet another autocratic, oppressive regime is good news for us all. For the record, Kyrgyzstan is west of China and south of Kazakhstan. According to the CIA Factbook, it's about the size of South Dakota. It has a population of about 5 million peope, of which about 75% are Muslim and most of the rest are Eastern Orthodox Christian. It has a literacy rate on par with the West, 97%, and an equally incredible HIV rate of less than 0.1% (in 2001). The country is mostly agricu... Kyrgyzstan's Revolution Highlights Profound Change
Angelique van Engelen - 3/26/2005
Kyrgyzstan's swift and sudden revolution happened almost before one could have managed to pronounce this obscure country's name. The chaos in the country where activists chased away their ruling leaders show a country coming to terms with a colonial past and on a quest to find a new identity. Despite the looting and the - tempered- violence, the initial reading of this revolution is that the catharsis might preclude a positive outcome. Not so much only for this tiny country, but more importantly perhaps in the wider context of the rise of democracy in the ex Soviet countries. Even the Russian... Chechnya: Separatists, Russian Forces in for the Long Haul and Big Cash
Angelique van Engelen - 3/23/2005
A next turn in the war in Chechnya is highly unpredictable, but the Islamic independence fighters who have insisted on wreaking total chaos appear to have gotten themselves what they have been after - an all out war against the Russians. Some have said that with the death of Aslan Maskhadov, the war in Chechnya as such is over. Now the show is run by Islamic separatist movements who run a 'race to extermination' and Moscow-backed security forces run by Ramsan Kadyrov, a 27-year old disgraced son of the country's former president who was killed earlier on. Russian Opposition May Re-emerge With a Solid Candidate for President
Masha Beliaeva - 3/22/2005
Former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, sacked by Putin last year, reappeared on Russian political horizon as a potential leader of the opposition and a presidential candidate. Kasyanov's candidacy as a leader of liberal coalition is not likely to speed up the process of much wanted unification between Russia's major liberal parties Yabloko and SPS. At present Kasyanov is the only solid potential rival to Putin in the run for presidential elections of 2008, while his timely come back as a pro-democratic leader is a sign that Russian political opposition may stand a chance. Former USSR : Whose Empire is it anyways?
Angelique van Engelen - 3/21/2005
Neo-imperialism in the former Soviet countries is a term that sparks confusion more than controversy in Russia these days. Both Russia and the US are trying to call the shots in a battle for power that bears resemblance to the post WWII carving up of Germany into power bases of the allied forces. The two countries are ill at ease with each other's presence in the former Soviet countries and US efforts to include Russian army bases in NATO based structures are not successful at all. Are the two (former) superpowers on a collision course? Anatoly Chubais: Russia's Last Oligarch
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/19/2005
Anatoly Chubais, head of Russia's electricity monopoly, survived an assassination attempt on March 17, 2005. A roadside charge, followed by a hail of automatic gunfire, failed to remove him from the scene. Even by the imperceptible standards of eastern Europe, the crony-infested Russian version of "privatization" was remarkable for its audacity and scope. Assets now worth some $25 billion were sold for c. $1 billion. A later loans-for-shares plunder was micromanaged by Anatoly Chubais, head of the State Property Committee, then heralded by the West as a "true reformer". Chubais enjoyed casting... Ukraine: The Crouching Tiger
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/15/2005
Reading the Western media, one would think that Ukraine's main products are grotesquely corrupt politicians, grey hued, drab, and polluted cities, and mysteriously deceased investigative journalists and erstwhile state functionaries. Ukraine: Russia's Younger Brother?
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/14/2005
The "Orange Revolution" in October-November 2004 was a coup d'etat. It was a disorderly, though popular, transfer of power from one group within the "Dniepropetrovsk clan", headed by Leonid Kuchma and his henchman to another faction, headed by the volatile and incompatible Viktor Yuschenko and Yulia Timoshenko. Russia's Second Empire
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/9/2005
History teaches us little except how little we can learn from it. Still, there is nothing new under the sun. Thus, drawing too many parallels between the environmentalist movements of the late 19th century and their counterparts in the second half of the twentieth century - would probably prove misleading. Similarly, every fin de siecle has its Fukuyama, proclaiming the end of history and the victory of liberalism and capitalism. Organ Trafficking in Eastern Europe
Sam Vaknin, Ph.D. - 3/7/2005
A kidney fetches $2700 in Turkey. According to the October 2002 issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association, this is a high price. An Indian or Iraqi kidney enriches its former owner by a mere $1000. Wealthy clients later pay for the rare organ up to $150,000. Russia and the Kipchak Curse
Antero Leitzinger - 3/3/2005
Empires are not born or killed, but transform themselves, disintegrate and reintegrate, reduce and enlarge their territory. An empire is preserved even when its dynasty changes because the change of regency does not necessarily imply changes in the culture of governance and strategic position of the empire. Kipchak was the name of a region that corresponds to present-day South Russia and Ukraine. It existed already before the conquests of Genghis Khan. The diversity of the peoples of Kipchak renders them uncountable, because they had, from the times of the Goths and the Huns, been moving aroun... Ural, Russia: Potential Instability, Autonomy and Independence
Antero Leitzinger - 3/2/2005
Summary: The region of Idel-Ural, presently consisting of three Finno-Ugric republics (Mari, Mordovia and Udmurtia) and three Turko-Tatar republics (Tatarstan, Bashkortostan and Chuvassistan) within the Russian Federation, forms a historically prosperous region with large natural resources. It used to be a site of glorious Tatar civilizations, and an important crossroads of both European and Oriental trade routes. Russia colonised this region in the 1500s, but since the fall of the USSR, several Idel-Ural republics have been looking for increasing autonomy from Moscow. Considering the region's... Moldova's Communist Government Looks Westward
Jovan Franke - 2/13/2005
Located between Ukraine and Romania, the small ex-Soviet republic of Moldova holds the unenviable position as the poorest country in Europe with debilitating foreign debt and high unemployment. After a decade of ineffective reformist governments, the Party of Communists of Moldova (PCRM) was elected to power by a large margin, in February 2001, on a platform of pro-Russian policies. However, with the PCRM seeking re-election next month, the government has noticeably shifted its foreign policy direction by promising closer ties with the European Union. While this westward turn can be partially ... Historical, Physical and Geographical Aspects of the Chechen Conflict
Whitney Garcia - 1/15/2005
The area known as the Caucasus in Russia is made up of six autonomous Russian republics nestled between Russia and Turkey, to the north and south, and the Black and Caspian seas to the West and East.[1] The northern portion of the Caucasus, located in southwestern Russia, is home to the territory known as Chechnya. Chechnya extends over approximately 19,300 square kilometers (about 8,000 square miles) on the northern slope of the Caucasus Mountains and covers several natural regions, spaning from her highest point at 14, 741 feet in the south to the northern plains and lowlands. [2] Chechnya ... The Circassian Genocide
Antero Leitzinger - 12/14/2004
The genocide committed against the Circassian nation by Czarist Russia in the 1800s was the biggest genocide of the nineteenth century. Yet it has been almost entirely forgotten by later history, while everyone knows the later Jewish Holocaust and many have heard about the Armenian genocide. "Rather than of separate, selectively researched genocides, we should speak of a general genocidal tendency that affected many - both Muslim and Christian - people on a wide scene between 1856 and 1956, continuing in post-Soviet Russia until today", writes Antero Leitzinger. This article was originally published in "Turkistan News". EXPERT INTERVIEW: Vlad Averbukh Explains Civil Unrest Following Ukrainian Elections
David Storobin, Esq. - 11/27/2004
Following Ukraine's Presidential elections, Viktor Yanukovych was declared winner, but his opponent, Viktor Yushchenko refused to admit loss, citing electoral fraud. Demonstrations have been held by Yushchenko's supporters. Today, we are interviewing Mr. Vlad Averbukh, an expert on the former Soviet Union, to explain to us what has happened in this major country that has 50 million citizens. |
